NFL Week 10
3u NE/DEN Under 44.5 @ $1.94 (Pinnacle)
2u Bengals +5.5 @ $1.95 (Pinnacle)
2u Chargers +4.5 @ $1.95 (Pinnacle)
2u Chargers win @ $2.88 (Ladbrokes)
2u Bills +3 @ $1.85 (Pinnacle)
1u Bills win @ $2.26 (Pinnacle)
1u Steelers win by 1-13 points @ $2.51 (Sportsbet)
1u Cowboys +3.5 @ $1.92 (Pinnacle)
1u Cowboys first team to score first @ $2.10 (Bet365)
Chargers @ Jaguars
Chargers +4.5 @ $1.95 (Pinnacle)
Chargers win @ $2.86 (Pinnacle)
The Chargers have had a more than respectable month and I tend to think that their 3-5 record unflatters them a bit. LA are 3-2 in their last 5 matches, losing to the Patriots and Eagles – both on the road – by a combined margin of 10 points. The Chargers have one of (if not) the smallest home field advantage, making their disadvantage on the road one of the smallest, and it shows as they are 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS on the road in 2017. The one time the Chargers lost ATS was on the road against the Patriots by half a point. The Jags are a definite playoff contender, there is no doubting that, but when you consider that the Chargers are coming off the bye, the disadvantage that the Chargers would’ve had travelling east is somewhat nullified, especially in an early kick off game. This is a 50/50 game in my opinion, making the Chargers value in this spot.
Bengals @ Titans
The Pick: Bengals +5.5 @ $1.95 (Pinnacle)
The Reason: The Titans are slightly overachieving at 5-3 as they’ve won their last 3 against the Colts, Browns and the Ravens… big deal. The last two of those were by 3 points each. The Ravens covered the +3.5 that was offered at Tennessee last week, there is no way that the Ravens are a 2-point better team than the Bengals despite what their respective records say. This is a real danger game for Tennessee.
Steelers @ Colts
The Pick: Steelers win by 1-13 points @ $2.51 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are an emotional fuelled football team, making creating a natural drop off in performance in this games that ‘should’ be an easy win. Since 2007, the Steelers are 5-4 SU, 1-8 ATS when favoured by 9.5+ points on the road. The Colts have been playing a lot better in the last couple of weeks with Jacoby Brissett. The Steelers shouldn’t let this one slip, but expect this one to be closer than what the market suggests.
Saints @ Bills
The Pick: Bills +3 @ $1.85 (Pinnacle)
The Reason: This is more of a situational pick more than anything as the Bills are playing at home, coming off a divisional loss from 10 days ago. You shouldn’t get a more motivated team than what the Bills this week. The Bills are 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS at home this season; 7-2 SU & ATS in their last 9 matches after losing as favourites, and teams coming off Thursday night matches are 10-4-2 ATS in 2017.
Cowboys @ Falcons
Cowboys +3.5 @ $1.92 (Pinnacle)
Cowboys first team to score first @ $2.10 (Bet365)
Since Jason Garrett took over the Dallas Cowboys in 2011, they are the only team to have a better winning record on the road than at home, so where this is played doesn’t concern me at all. I would have this game as “pick em” (no line), as I feel that this is a 50/50 game. I have kept an eye on this line all week, and have been waiting all week for the line to tick over 3 and onto 3.5 and now that it has, I feel that it is simply too many points to pass on, even with Ezekiel Elliott out suspended. The ‘Boys are 3-1 SU & ATS on the road this season, whereas the Falcons are 1-2 SU & ATS at home. The rationale for the prop-play of the Cowboys to score first is that the Cowboys almost always elect to receive the ball if they win the toss whereas the Falcons tend to defer the decision – giving the Cowboys the ball to start the game either way. When you have the ball to start the game, you are always at least even, or one possession ahead of your opponent. Staying one drive ahead makes the $2.10 too much to pass up.
Patriots @ Broncos
The Pick: Under 44.5 @ $1.94 (Pinnacle)
The Reason: Despite conceding 51 points on the road last week to the league-leading Eagles, the Broncos are still one of the most elite defences in the league, and one that has had Tom Brady’s number in the past. In fact, through out his career, Tom Brady has a winning record against every team in the league, except the Denver Broncos Why aren’t I backing the Broncos, then? Because they’re unbackable at the moment, no matter where they play. In their last four trips to Mile High, the Patriots have averaged 18.5 points on Offence. Let’s say they score 20 points; I don’t see the Broncos scoring 25+. This line should be closer to 41 than 45.