NFL Week 11
This NFL preview will a little bit different than most, week 11’s edition will have quite a few more exotic/prop plays due to the fact that there are quite a few mediocre teams with mediocre Quarterbacks squaring off against each other. A prime example is the Arizona Cardinals (Blaine Gabbert) up against the Houston Texans (Tom Savage), Blake Bortles v DeShone Kizer, Hundley v Flacco, Dalton v Osweiler … no thanks, I’m not touching them. With that being said, let’s get under way!
3u Derek Carr over 269.5 passing yards @ $1.88 (Crownbet)
2u Jordan Howard over 80.5 rushing yards @ $1.88 (Crownbet)
2u Melvin Gordon over 69.5 rushing yards @ $1.88 (Crownbet)
2u Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer @ $2 (Bet365)
2u Buccaneers Win @ $1.92 (Crownbet)
2u Dak Prescott over 240.5 passing yards @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
2u Patriots / Chiefs / Saints multi @ $1.95 + 7.5% = $2.10 (Bet365)
Lions @ Bears
The Pick: Jordan Howard over 80.5 rushing yards @ $1.88 (Crownbet)
The Reason: The Lions have allowed 136.8 rushing YPG in their last four matches. When you combine that with the fact that 15+ mph winds are expected to be going through Soldier Field at the time of kick off, expect Jordan Howard to pound the rock all day long.
Bills @ Chargers
The Pick: Melvin Gordon over 69.5 rushing yards @ $1.88 (Crownbet)
The Reason: The Bills have allowed over 500 rushing yards in their last two matches… 500?! It cannot be coincidence that the Bills running defence has drastically gone downhill since Buffalo traded Defensive Tackle, Marcell Dareus, to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Chargers’ Running Back, Melvin Gordon, has had a bit of a down year compared to last year (pre-injury), but with Phillip Rivers suffering a minor concussion last week, the Chargers will most likely favour running the ball in order to minimalise the chances of their Quarterback getting hit.
Chiefs @ Giants
The Pick: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer @ $2 (Bet365)
The Reason: Travis Kelce has the most receiving yards, second most catches, and third most Touchdowns among Tight Ends in the NFL. The Giants have conceded a touchdown to a Tight End in every match this season – totalling 10 in 9 matches.
Patriots v Raiders
The Pick: Derek Carr over 269.5 passing yards @ $1.88 (Crownbet)
The Reason: The Patriots are rolling at 7 wins and 2 losses but their biggest knock would have to be their passing defence, conceding the most passing yards per game in the NFL – 287. It is most likely a combination of not being very good and playing with a lead, forcing their opponents to pass the ball. I believe the Patriots will win this game, forcing the already pass-heavy Raiders to throw the ball for the majority of the game. Just to top it off, Derek Carr has averaged 343 passing yards in his last 3 games.
Buccaneers v Dolphins
The Pick: Buccaneers Win @ $1.92 (Crownbet)
The Reason: I know this is a game with two mediocre quarterbacks – something I said I was keen to avoid – but I see an opportunity here as The Dolphins have lost their last 3 by an average of 22.3 points, and there is very little wonder as they are ranked dead last in Net Yards Per Play (-1.2). The team looked like they gave up against the Panthers, and Jay Cutler looks like, well… Jay Cutler. The best price has been missed out here, but with the Dolphins having practically no home-field advantage against the Florida-residing Tampa Bay, the Bucs should still be a shorter price than what is offered. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick is in for the injured Famous Jameis, but he is not much of a downgrade especially when considering that Jameis Winston was playing injured for his last few games. The Bucs should still win this.
Eagles v Cowboys
The Pick: Dak Prescott over 240.5 passing yards @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The Eagles concede only 42.5 rushing yards to Running Backs a game in 2017, by far the best in the NFL. With Ezekiel Elliot out due to suspension, expect the Cowboys to be more pass-heavy against their divisional rivals, especially if they fall behind against the team with the best win-loss record in the league. The Eagles concede the 7th most pass yards in the league; just like the Patriots, a lot of that is because their opponents are forced to