The Reason: The worst result the Jets have had at home this year is a 7-point loss, and that came against the Patriots in controversial fashion – nothing to be ashamed of. The Jets, who were predicted to be the worst team in the league, are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home matches against teams with winning records and have covered 6 straight as home underdogs. On the flip side, the Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as road favourites. I’m going to have a little nibble on the straight up win too, $3+ is too tasty to ignore.
Browns @ Bengals
The Pick: Bengals -7.5 @ $1.98 (Pinnacle)
The Reason: The Bengals are 6-0 SU & ATS in their last 6 games against the Browns, winning by an average margin of 22.7 points in that span. Enough said really. Just in case you wanted more of an illustration of how much the Browns stink (especially in their own division), the browns are 0-14 SU, 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 divisional games.
Jaguars @ Cardinals
Jaguars win + Under 38 Points @ $2.75.
Adrian Peterson Under 69.5 rushing yards @ $1.87 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The Jaguars have conceded an incredibly low 8.8 points per game on the road in 2017. That’s enough for me to bet on both the Jags and the under, as the Jags will continue to chew the clock with the lead. Since Defensive Tackle, Marcell Dareus was traded from the Bills to the Jags, the Jags have gone from dead-last to the league’s best in defensive yards per carry. Since week 8, the Jags have conceded just 2.39 yards per carry. In Adrian Peterson’s 5 starts in a Cardinals jersey, he has averaged under 2 yards per carry in 3 of them. The total of 69.5 is way too high!
Saints @ Rams
The Pick: Saints win @ $2.11 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The Saints are tied for first in net yards per play, and are arguably the best team in the league at the moment. Granted, the Saints aren’t typically the same team on the road as under the roof at home, but the California weather should not alter their performance too much. I do not underestimate the Rams, but if you tell me that the Saints are underdogs against anyone, I’ll heavily consider it.