NFL Week 14 Preview
3u Steelers + Under 51.5 Points @ $1.97 (Sportsbet)
3u Oak/KC Over 48 points @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
3u Chargers win 1-13 @ $2.43 (Sportsbet)
2u Seattle + Under 48.5 Points @ $2.64 (Sportsbet)
2u Eagles win @ $1.97 (Pinnacle)
1u Panthers 1-13 @ $2.95 (Sportsbet)
1u 49ers win 1-13 @ $2.82 (Sportsbet)
49ers @ Texans
The Pick: 49ers win 1-13 @ $2.82 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The 49ers are ranked 8th in net yards per play over the last 3 weeks, indicating that they have been moving the ball a lot easier than their opponents in that time, the Texans are ranked 21st in that span. I see a big quarterback mismatch here as Jimmy Garoppolo’s reinvigorated 49ers are definitely value against a deflated Houston Texans team who is lead by Tom Savage (1-5 SU in 2017).
Vikings @ Panthers
The Pick: Panthers win @ $2.95 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: It’s hard to bet against the equal most in-form team in the league in the Vikings, who have won their last 8, and covered in their last 7, but this is a really bad spot for Minnesota. The Vikings are playing their 3rd straight road game, so expect that to take some toll, and the Panthers will be highly motivated after watching the Saints lose on Thursday night, a result that has totally opened up the NFC South.
Rams @ Eagles
The Pick: Eagles win @ $1.97 (Pinnacle)
The Reason: The Eagles underperformed and lost on national TV last week, the now 2nd seed in the NFC will be highly motivated to right their wrongs. Even though the Eagles struggled last week, they are still ranked 2nd in net yards per play in the last three weeks, the Rams are ranked 25th. The Rams have also had their plans and routines altered due to the fires that have been spreading across LA during the week, this is an unfortunate distraction that the Rams could do without. This is a bad spot for the Rams.
Raiders @ Chiefs
The Pick: Over 48 points @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The last time that these two AFC West rivals faced off against each other, the score line finished 31-30 to the Raiders, and I expect a similar score line when they meet again on Sunday. The Chiefs conceded 38 points to the Jets last week… let that sink in for a second. This matchup really is the Raiders’ strength against the Chiefs’ weakness as the Chiefs have conceded the 2nd most yards and touchdowns to Wide Receivers in 2017. Now that Chiefs Star Cornerback Marcus Peters is out suspended, I expect the Raiders Wide Receivers to exploit that with a pass-heavy game and blowing out the 48 points.
Redskins @ Chargers
The Pick: Chargers win 1-13 @ $2.43 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: I highly doubt you will find a more energised and motivated football team than the Chargers at the moment. After starting the season 0-4, they find themselves in a three-way tie for the AFC West, and look like the best team in that race. On the flipside, some would say that the Redskins’ season was on the line last week, and they got blown out by the divisional rivals in the Cowboys – a real dream crusher. I expect the Chargers to win, but I don’t expect them to blow out a Redskins side who hadn’t lost on the road by 14 or more points in their last 16 road games, prior to last week.
Seahawks @ Jaguars
The Pick: Seattle + Under 48.5 Points @ $2.64 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: Seattle have won and “under” has prevailed in each of Seattle’s last 4 road games. The set total for this game is 40, so I’m buying a few more points to play with. Again, I see a really big Quarterback mismatch in this game with Russell Wilson (who to be honest, should be in MVP talks) and Blake Bortles. The rest of the squad? There’s not that much of a difference. Okay, the Jaguars definitely have the better defence considering two of the three recognised Legion of Boom members are out for the season, but the Seahawks are still considered a top team. Something that was evident on primetime last week against the Eagles. Seattle are a team that you simply do not want to face in December, as they are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 matches in December, and 8-1 ATS on the road! If they are to beat the Jaguars, they simply have to stop the Jaguars running game. This is something that the Seahawks should believe that is achievable, as Jaguars’ Running Back Leonard Fournette is only averaging just 2.94 yards per carry in his last 4 matches. I love this spot for the Seahawks.
Ravens @ Steelers
The Pick: Steelers + Under 51.5 Points @ $1.97 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The Steelers got out of trouble last weekend against another divisional opponent in the Bengals, but that scare might be a little fright Pittsburgh needed. Home field advantage in the NFL is generally worth 3 points, potentially 3.5 in Pittsburgh due to the fact that they have won 8 of their last 9 at Heinz Field, and with the line being set at -4.5, the books are practically saying the Steelers are a 1-point better team than the Ravens… please. I personally think the Ravens are the second most overrated team in the NFL (behind the Titans). One of my favourite stats in the NFL is “under” is 14-5 in the last 19 AFC North divisional matches in games that do not involve the Cleveland Browns. I expect this to follow suit.