The Pick: Vikings win + Under 40.5 @ $2.40 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The Packers will be flat after announcing that Aaron Rodgers is out for the season, opting not to risk his injured shoulder now that Green Bay are now officially ruled out of playoff contention. With so much to play for, I expect the Vikings to win on the road here. As for the under, well, Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to be flinging the ball around for 3 touchdowns for one side, and 16 of the last 21 divisional games involving the Vikings have gone under. 10+ mph winds are expected to influence the game, and there is no higher weather influencer in terms of points scored than wind.
Falcons @ Saints
The Pick: Saints -6 @ $1.97 (Crownbet)
The Reason: Over the last 3 weeks, the Saints are ranked 3rd in net yards per play, opposed to the Falcons’ 21st. One of the strongest stats in the league is that the Saints are 19-0 SU, 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 home games when they have a winning record. This stat shows that when the Saints are a good football team, they have one of the best home field advantages in the league. The Falcons are coming off a Monday Night game on the road, so this is a bad spot for the Falcons. I’ll back the Saints by over a touchdown.
Jaguars @ 49ers
The Pick: Jaguars -4 @ $1.95 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The 49ers are one of the most in form teams in the NFL, a funny thing to say when talking about a 4-win team in week 16. San Francisco are on a 3-win streak and have to be one of the most energetic teams in the league, with a special thanks to the franchise’s new quarterback, Jimmy Garopollo. But on the flip side, the Jags are one of the best teams in the league with what is most likely the best defence in the league. During their 3-win streak, the 49ers have beaten Chicago, Houston, and Tennessee; none of these teams are anywhere as good as Jacksonville. It is commonly said that home field advantage is worth 3 points, indicating that Jaguars are only a 1-point better team than the 49ers, there is no way that is true. With a chance to clinch the AFC South for the first time ever, the Jaguars won’t let this opportunity slip.
The Reason: To say that the Seahawks were embarrassed against the Rams last week would be one of the biggest understatements of the year. The Seahawks are a proud Football team who is coached heavily on emotion, so they definitely have a point to prove against Dallas this week. The Seahawks commonly bounce back after a loss, having won their last 9 times the week after losing as a favourite. League-wide, teams off a blowout by 5 or more TDs are 52-29-5 (64%) ATS since 2003. The Cowboys aren’t necessarily a great Football team at home under Jason Garrett. In fact, they’re the team in the NFL, since Jason Garrett took over the Cowboys, to have more wins on the road than at home.
Bills @ Patriots
The Pick: Patriots 1-13 @ $2.58 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The Patriots are coming off their most important game of the year – against the Steelers on the road with the number 1 seed on the line – so it is only natural to have a little bit of a drop off this week. Will the Patriots lose and completely waste efforts? Most likely not, but I do not expect them to cover the 11.5 line, so I have going for the Patriots by under a touchdown.
Rams @ Titans
The Pick: Titans +6.5 @ $1.94 (Crownbet)
The Reason: I have labelled the Titans as the most overrated football team in the league for some time now, and the public have started to notice that they are… no longer making them overrated. This 6.5 buffer shows just how little respect the public and the bookmakers have for the Titans. To show just how little respect is shown, if this was played in Los Angeles, we would be looking at roughly a 12.5 line. The Titans have far too much to play for to get blown out at home. I’m not confident in the Titans in winning as the Rams are a legit Football team, but with the Rams coming off a huge divisional win last week combined with a road trip to the east, this isn’t a good spot for the Rams.
Steelers @ Texans
The Pick: Steelers 1-13 @ $2.46 (Sportsbet)
The Reason: The Steelers are 5-20 ATS when favoured by more than a touchdown on the road, making them one of the worst heavily favoured road teams in the league. But with the first-round bye in danger, the Steelers won’t lose this one on Monday night. $2.46 is value.