We’re a third of the way through the NFL regular season…(boy, the NFL season flies through quickly!) and we’re looking to turn our season around. Results haven’t gone the way we would have liked this season in terms of making a profit, and for those who have followed us on my picks… I apologise.
One thing I will assure you though, is that we are determined to turn it around, just like how we did in the AFL. “Trusting the process” is an overused expression that really indicates that you are too stubborn to change when things need to… instead I will be “tweaking the process”. If a process isn’t working, don’t trust it, tweak it… Right, Damien Hardwick?
Even though I (usually) find great value in historic trends, American Football is one of the most objectively analytical sport in existence. Without completely throwing the historic trends away, I will be putting more of an emphasis on more up-to-date KPI statistics (eg offense/defence rankings, Net yards per play, etc.) and general wagering theories. I have tried to be as objective as possible wagering on teams with clear and evident historic trends, but sometimes your eyes tell you more than any trend could.
So with a bit of tweaking this week, hopefully I can find the right balance for you. With that being said… Let’s get into some football!
NFL Week 6
2u Bears +6.5 @ $1.96 (Pinnacle)
2u Saints -4 @ $1.95 (Bet365)
1u Browns +9.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)
2u NE/NYJ Under 47.5 total points @ $1.90 (Bet365)
3u Rams win @ $2.20 (Pinnacle)
2u Bankers Multi @ 1.92 (Bet365)
Bears @ Ravens
The Pick: Bears +6.5 @ $1.96 (Pinnacle)
The Reason: Net Yards Per Play (NYPP) is one of the most important stats in American Football. It indicates how well your offense is moving the ball opposed to your opponent (offensive yards per play minus defensive yards per play), and the Ranked 27th in the league in this department. The Bears aren’t that much better at 19th, but enough for me to think giving them 6.5 points is far too generous.
Lions @ Saints
The Pick: Saints -4 @ $1.95
The Reason: Teams that have had extra rest than their opponents are 10-0 ATS in 2017, Combine that with the fact that the Saints are 5-0 SU at home the week after having a bye, and that Drew Brees has 8 TD’s and 0 picks in 2017, all signals are pointing to the Saints. But the Lions are 3-2 and are holding their own in the tough NFC North division I hear you ask? I’m not convinced. The Lions are ranked 30th in the league for NYPP. How is that possible I also hear you ask? The Lions are ranked tied second for turnover differentials, which is a positive of course, but turnovers aren’t necessarily sustainable and there is an element of luck in a turnover… not so much when dictating how well a team moves the chains. Brees will have a field day.
Browns @ Texans
The Pick: Browns +9.5 @ $1.90
The Reason: Whaaaaaattt? Why? The Browns are 0-15 SU, 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road matches?? A lot of people will call me an idiot for this play, but the way I see it is that the Browns just UPGRADED in the quarterback position even though they just demoted their starter (go figure?). The Browns are ranked ahead of the Texans in NYPP, with the Browns’ downfall ultimately being the constant turnovers from now-benched DeShone Kizer. Kevin Hogan will be no worse moving the chains, but will also secure the ball better. The Texans are going along nicely, but one third of their starting defence is on the sidelines. JJ Watt, Brian Cushing, and Whitney Mercilus. I see this one being a closer than a 10-point game.
Patriots @ Jets
The Pick: Under 47.5 total points @ $1.90 (Bet365)
The Reason: Even though Tom Brady has been declared fit to play, I believe the shoulder injury alters the offensive game plan for the Patriots, leaning more towards a run-heavy offense. More runs = most time taken off the clock = less time to score points. The Patriots’ D’s biggest weakness is their secondary, but the Jets don’t have the passing power to exploit it. I’m predicting around 35 points scored for this game.
Rams @ Jaguars
The Pick: Rams win @ $2.20 (Pinnacle)
The reason: The Rams breathtakingly fast turnaround under Sean McVay is one of the reasons why I am no longer solely relying on trends, as this Rams Football team is legit! The Rams are ranked 3rd in NYPP in the league, 3rd!? You cannot be ranked 3rd this far into the season without being a legit football team. The Jags are ranked at a respectable 13th, but I believe they are overachieving and Blake Bortles can only take this team so far. The Rams are an all rounded outfit, and Goff doesn’t have to rely on his D and their running game as much as Bortles has to as the former number 1 draft pick is showing his worth.