Round 10 commences with a blockbuster clash between the Bulldogs and the Roosters at ANZ Stadium.
After a recent run of poor form, the Bulldogs welcome back captain James Graham and five-eighth Josh Reynolds for this vital clash and no doubt both will be keen to make amends and get the Dogs season back on track.
The Bulldogs have won 11 of the past 15 clashes here with the Roosters, however the Roosters have won the two most recent encounters here.
Interestingly for two sides that pride themselves on defence, 6 of the past 8 clashes here have produced 44pts or more.
The Bulldogs live for big games, and are 4/6 this year in Friday night matches, so I think they can give this an almighty shake.
I get the feeling this could be a grinding type of game, however based on the stats listed above I can’t ignore having something on the Game Total which I feel has come up too low.
Verdict: Total Match Points Over 37.5 at $1.91 with
Nth Qld vs Brisbane
The Cowboys will be looking to make amends after a 44-22 thumping earlier this season at the hands of the Broncos when they meet again on Friday night.
The Cowboys have won just 10 of the past 33 clashes at all venues against their Qld counterparts, including 6 of the past 18 at this ground.
In more promising news for the home side, they have won 4 of the past 5 clashes here against the Broncos and are currently enjoying a rich vein of form.
Points also tend to flow between the two sides at this ground, with 5 of the past 7 clashes here tallying over 40pts.
Both these sides are flying at present, so we could be in for a classic derby with plenty of end to end action and lead changes along the way.
Verdict: Tri Bet Either Team to Win by 6.5 Points or Less at $3.0 with
Parramatta vs New Zealand
After getting out of jail last week, the Warriors will be seeking back to back away victories when they travel to Parramatta Stadium to face the Eels.
Despite a 29-16 victory earlier this season, the Warriors have a terrible record against Parramatta, having won just 3 of the past 16 clashes away from Mt Smart Stadium.
Parramatta has also won 10 of the past 13 with the Warriors at this ground, including the past 2 straight.
The past 3 clashes here have recorded 50pts or more, and the past 6 clashes at all venues has recorded 42pts or more, so there is a solid history of these sides piling on the points and that’s the angle I’m keen to play.
Verdict: Total Match Points Over 42.5 at $1.95 with
Gold Coast vs Sharks
Off field dramas once again threaten to derail the Gold Coast’s season, so football may well be a welcome relief when they do battle with the Sharks on Saturday afternoon.
The Titans were victorious over the Sharks 24-22 earlier this year, and have won 6 of the past 12 clashes overall with the Sharks, including ¾ at this ground.
4 of the past 5 meetings between these two has seen a winning margin of 6pts or less, and with 3 of the past 4 clashes here tallying 34pts or less, we could be in for a low scoring close encounter throughout.
For that reason I see value in the Tri Bet and believe this will give us a great sight in a match that could go either way.
Verdict: Tri Bet Either Team to Win by 6.5 Points or Less at $2.90with
Melbourne vs Souths
Melbourne will look to continue their dominance over Souths when they meet at AAMI Park on Saturday evening.
The Storm boasts a remarkable record over the Rabbitohs, having won 19 of the past 23 clashes at all venues.
More impressively they have are unbeaten here from the past 11 clashes and have covered the handicap on all bar one of those occasions!
Melbourne have also won 10 of the past 11 here by a margin of 13pts or more, and with the Bunnies missing halfback Adam Reynolds, I could easily see things getting ugly for the visitors in this one.
Verdict: Melbourne 13+ at $3.25 with
St George vs Canberra
An intriguing clash awaits on Sunday afternoon between two of the form sides of the past month, when St George host Canberra.
As with the previous match, somewhat of a hoodoo exists here with Raiders historically having the upper hand over their Sydney rivals.
St George recorded a 22-20 victory over Canberra in Round 3, however that was just their 8th win from the past 25 clashes overall with the Raiders.
The Dragons have also won just 4 of their past 10 home matches with Canberra, and just 2 of the last 6 at this ground.
Canberra have won 5 of the past 6 clashes at St George, with 6 of the past 7 meetings having resulted in a winning margin of 1-12, so I think there’s a bit of value here with the Green Machine so that’s the way we’ll go.
Newcastle will be desperate to end a 5 game losing streak when they face fellow strugglers the Wests Tigers on Sunday afternoon.
The tigers have been somewhat of a bogey side for the Knights, with Newcastle winning just 9/19 matches with the Tigers at all venues, and 6/11 at this ground.
More recently the Tigers have won 5 of the past 7 matches at this ground, so that should give them confidence after being taught a lesson by the Roosters last week.
The angle I’m keen to play however is the Game Total and here’s why.
Only once in the past 11 clashes here between these two has the Game Total failed to surpass 40pts, and similarly on just 3/19 occasions at all venues has the Total failed to reach the same figure.
With Knights halfback Tyrone Roberts in woeful form it is somewhat of a risk to bank on plenty of points being scored here, however the Knights are too good a side not to click into gear at some stage and the Tigers always show a liking for throwing the ball around, so we’ll trust the numbers and go for a high scoring match.
Verdict: Total Match Points Over 39.5 at $1.91 with
Manly vs Penrith
Penrith will be looking to bounce back after a last minute loss last week, when they travel to fortress Brookvale to face the Sea Eagles on Monday night.
Manly have won 12 of the past 23 clashes against the Panthers at all venues, however they hold a superior record here winning 8 of the past 11 clashes at Brookvale Oval.
Manly have also won 5 of their past 7 Monday night matches at home, whilst the Panthers have just one victory from their past 5 Monday night attempts away from home.
Penrith have been ravaged with injuries throughout this season, however they are starting to get key players back and showed last week what they are capable of against table topping opposition.
With a 10 day turnaround it would not surprise me for the Panthers to regain some more troops, and I fancy them to do the double over Manly here in a close one.