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NRL: Round 11 Match Previews and Tips
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By @WarrenAnscombe

 

Souths vs Parramatta

With Origin upon us we see the first of the split rounds when Souths host Parramatta on Friday night.

Souths have won 6 of the past 7 matches at home with the Eels, and have also covered the handicap on 6 of these occasions.

Despite a 29-16 loss earlier this year, Souths have won 6 of the past 7 clashes with the Eels at all venues.

Parramatta also have a woeful 2 wins from the past 11 attempts at this ground against Souths, and have not beaten the Rabbitohs here since 2010.

Given the off-field salary cap dramas that have emerged this week I cannot have the Eels here, so despite the loss of key fullback Greg Inglis, I expect the Bunnies to get back to winning form in style.

Verdict: Souths -6 at $1.94 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

 

Wests Tigers vs North Qld

Wests Tigers will be looking to take advantage of a Jonathan Thurston-less Cowboys when the two meet at Campbelltown on Saturday evening.

The Tigers have an amazing record against the Cowboys here, winning 12 of the past 15 matches at home including the past 11 straight!

Wests have also covered 10 of their past 11 matches at home against the Cowboys, with the visitors winless away from North Qld since 2004.

Points have also flowed between these two, with 9 of the past 11 Tigers home matches against the Cowboys recording over 40pts.

More importantly, since 2005, 17 of the past 20 clashes between these two at all venues have tallied 40pts or more, so that’s the angle I’ll be looking to play.

Verdict: Total Match Points Over 39.5 at $1.90 with Screenshot 2015-02-28 15.16.54

 

 

 

 

Canberra vs Bulldogs

The Bulldogs will have to do without influential skipper James Graham when they face a full strength Raiders side in Canberra on Sunday afternoon.

The Dogs have a fair record here, winning 7 of the past 13 matches, including the most recent 2 clashes.

Canberra have also not beaten the Bulldogs at any venue since 2012, so with injuries and Origin call-ups affecting their rivals, they will have no better chance than here.

5 of the past 6 clashes here have resulted in a winning margin of 1-12 points, so I think there’s a bit of value here so will side with that.

Verdict: Canberra 1-12 at $3.20 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

 

 

Newcastle vs Brisbane

The Knights got a much needed victory last week and will be looking to make it back to back home wins against an Origin depleted Broncos.

Newcastle tend to struggle against Brisbane, having won just 3 of the past 11 clashes at this ground, and just 1 of the past 8 matches at all venues.

The past 4 matches here have tallied under 40pts, so with the Knights attack still looking suspect and Brisbane missing key players, this could be a good angle to play.

The Knights have won their past 6 Monday night home games which gives them hope, however despite missing their Origin contingent I think the Broncos are overpriced here, so will side with them at the Line.

Verdict: Brisbane +5.5 at $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-05-27 08.55.43

 

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