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Premier League: Burnley v Man Utd
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By Mark Phillips @betdetective

Burnley v Man Utd

Louis Van Gaal takes his traveling Red Devils circus to face Burnley at Turf Moor in the live 9.45pm TV game on Saturday still looking for his first win in English football. 

Man Utd were humiliated in the week losing 4-0 at MK Dons while Burnley also lost, against  Sheffield Wednesday, and have yet to score this season. 

United should bring back Rooney, Van Persie and Juan Mata for this match and we should also see the debuts of record signing Angel Di Maria and Marcos Rojo.

 

I’ve written at length about wanting to be with promoted teams in August and September so that was the focus of my initial analysis.

 

 

Man Utd against promoted teams since 09/10

Screenshot 2014-08-29 13.52.01

That doesn’t look too promising.

 

Man Utd AWAY against promoted teams since 09/10

Screenshot 2014-08-29 13.54.08

Nothing encouraging there but the Man Utd of last season and maybe this season too is vastly different results wise to the previous four years.

 

 

Man Utd against promoted teams 13/14

Screenshot 2014-08-29 13.57.30

So despite 13/14 being United’s worst season since Jesus was a lad they still won 5 and drew 1 against the promoted teams. The results of these games were wins of 3-1, 2-0, 2-0, 3-2, 2-0 and a 2-2 draw. 

 

Expanding the analysis I looked at Man Utd against teams that went on to finish in the bottom six.

 

 

Man Utd against bottom 6 teams since 09/10

Screenshot 2014-08-29 14.05.39

That’s a good record, winning 85% of games against the bottom six over five seasons.

 

Man Utd AWAY against bottom 6 teams since 09/10

Screenshot 2014-08-29 14.08.42

 

An 80% win rate away against bottom six teams is excellent. 

 

And last season..

Man Utd against bottom 6 teams 13/14

Screenshot 2014-08-29 14.11.11

Not too bad for a team that finished in 7th.

 

Man Utd AWAY against bottom 6 teams 13/14

Screenshot 2014-08-29 14.12.58

Unbeaten away against bottom six teams last season.

 

 

The analysis above made me want to get with Man Utd in some way in this match so I looked into their results in the Asian handicap markets against promoted teams and bottom six teams.

 

Against promoted teams since 09/10

Screenshot 2014-08-29 14.30.16

 

 

Against bottom six teams since 09/10

Screenshot 2014-08-29 14.41.30

 

Slightly conflicting trends there with 10% of matches against promoted teams won by more than 2 goals but 45% against bottom six teams.

Man Utd won by more than one goal against promoted teams 40% of the time and against bottom six teams in 67% of their matches. 

 

Bet: 

Manchester United -1 goal Asian handicap (money back if Man Utd win by one goal) at $2.17 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

I also had a look into the total goals trends while I was at it and the over 2.5 goals looks like a bit of value here.

 

Man Utd v bottom six teams since 09/10

Screenshot 2014-08-29 14.56.33

 

Man Utd v promoted teams since 09/10

Screenshot 2014-08-29 14.58.55

 

With 75% of matches going over 2.5 goals since 09/10 against bottom six teams and with Man Utd bringing back Rooney, Van Persie and Mata to go with Di Maria I think we’ll see plenty of goals here, with Man Utd getting most, if not all of them. 

Bet:

1 unit over 2.5 goals at $1.99 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

 

 

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