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English Premier League: Futures Bets
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By Mark Phillips @betdetective

 

The plan for this thread is to put up a few bet suggestions for the forthcoming Premier League season with the intention of updating it with more suggested hedges/bets as the season progresses.

 

 

         Screenshot 2015-08-07 15.03.41

 

Premier League Winner

 

Current odds:  Chelsea $2.75, Man City $3.85, Arsenal $4.85, Man Utd $6.0, Liverpool $31.

Most will see this as a four runner race with Arsenal having finally signed a serious goalkeeper in Petr Cech but i’m not 100% sure about him, despite his stats suggesting he could be the answer to the Gunners’ long term keeping issue.

I can see Liverpool making a good run at making it a five way race as they did the season before last when they were the same odds as this year and traded at $1.20 with a few games to go.

Chelsea are obvious favourites but whether they should be under 2/1 is debatable.

Man City look a fair bet at $3.85 but the fitness of Sergio Aguero is always a worry for them.

Man Utd have bought well and should be a stronger proposition than in the last two years.

Liverpool have also bought well and in Christian Benteke have someone to fill the injured boots of Dean Sturridge. They disappointed last season but it had to be expected. They lost Suarez and Sturridge for most of the season and replaced them with Balotelli and Lambert.

The biggest signing for Liverpool could well prove to be James Milner from Man City. He looks the perfect replacement for Steven Gerrard in the centre of midfield although could spend time on either wing as well.

Gerrard’s legs went a few years ago and he really should have gone long before he did. Liverpool’s record without him was far better than with him in his last five years at the club and I see his departure as a big plus. I expect Jordan Henderson to step up as club captain and I like the signings of Englishmen Nathaniel Clyne and Danny Ings.

1 unit each way on Liverpool to win the title at $29 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10 (1/3 odds a place 1st and 2nd)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   Screenshot 2015-08-07 15.04.16Screenshot 2015-08-07 15.05.17

Premier League Top Goalscorer

If Liverpool are to make a challenge then Christian Benteke will have to get 20+ goals. If, and it’s a big IF, he can steer clear of injuries I think he will.

He has consistently hit a goal every two starts in his career and will get more chances at Liverpool than he did when scoring 42 in 82 starts for goal shy Aston Villa.

The obvious dangers are Sergio Aguero and Diego Costa but both have been troubled by injuries and at their current odds I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bit of value.

Theo Walcott and Dean Sturridge would both be overpriced at $34 but the injury factor is a huge one with these two and their odds probably aren’t incorrect.

Arsenal are generally sub $5.0 to win the league this season but do not have any player at under $21 for top scorer.

Alexis Sanchez is $21, Olivier Giroud is $26 with Walcott at $34.

Sanchez is the most interesting one at those odds.

Last season he scored 26 in 58 games in all comps for Arsenal and Chile and 23 in 50 the year before when at Barcelona.

1 unit each way on Christian Benteke at $17 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

1 unit each way on Alexis Sanchez at $21 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

(1/4 odds a place 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th)

 

 

 

 

 

         Screenshot 2015-08-07 15.06.40

Premier League Winner w/o Top 6

This market takes Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and Spurs out of the equation making it a 14 runner race.

The favourites are Southampton and Everton at $3.25 and $3.50 but neither offer value. Southampton keep improving but the loss of Schneiderlin could really hurt them while i’m not convinced by Roberto Martinez. His teams play nice looking football but thats the extent of it so far.

Stoke could go well at $11 and i would not put anyone off backing them at that price. Mark Hughes is an excellent manager whose record bears the closest scrutiny.

Crystal Palace are the most intriguing team in the division having signed Yohan Cabaye from PSG for 10 million pounds.

Cabaye was underrated when he was at Newcastle but was instrumental in them punching well above their weight when he was there with, now Palace boss, Alan Pardew.

In the 12/13 season Newcastle won 38%, drew 28% and lost 34% of the games he played. When he was missing Newcastle won 14%, drew 29% and lost 57%.

Cabaye teaming up at Palace with the midfielder that could currently be the most underrated in the league in Mile Jedinak is a mouthwatering prospect for the Selhurst Park faithful.

Patrick Bamford has come on loan from Chelsea and he could also do well as he has done already when on loan in the Championship.

1 unit each way Crystal Palace at $15 with Screenshot 2015-07-22 08.43.26 (1/4 odds a place 1st & 2nd)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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