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Premier League - Promoted Teams
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By Mark Phillips 

I’ve long had an inking that promoted teams to the English Premier League do well in the early part of the season as the other teams adjust to playing against new players and perhaps underestimate them.

I’ve had some success in backing promoted teams in the league handicap market and trading out of the positions around Christmas time.

I’ve analysed the data of all promoted teams from the start of the season until the end of September for the last 10 seasons.

Backing each promoted team blind to level stakes (apart from when they played each other) produced the following results:

 

 

 

Last 10 Years:

Season

Bets

Wins

P/L

ROI

2004/05

19

1

-16.8

 

2005/06

17

5

5.55

 

2006/07

17

3

-9.6

 

2007/08

20

4

-7.65

 

2008/09

18

6

19.75

 

2009/10

21

5

7.53

 

2010/11

16

6

18.45

 

2011/12

18

5

3.23

 

2012/13

15

3

-7.98

 

2013/14

16

6

8.83

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

177

44

21.31

12.04%

 

 

 

 

Last 5 Years:

Season

Bets

Wins

P/L

ROI

2009/10

21

5

7.53

 

2010/11

16

6

18.45

 

2011/12

18

5

3.23

 

2012/13

15

3

-7.98

 

2013/14

16

6

8.83

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

86

25

30.06

34.95%

 

 

 There were some big priced winners in there including West Brom when they beat Arsenal on 25/09/2010 at 14/1 and Hull when they also beat Arsenal on 27/09/2008 at 16/1.

The table below shows the numbers when only backing when odds are 4/1 or bigger:

 

 

Season

Bets

Wins

P/L

ROI

2004/05

11

0

-11

 

2005/06

6

1

0.5

 

2006/07

7

0

-7

 

2007/08

9

0

-9

 

2008/09

8

4

24.75

 

2009/10

9

2

5.75

 

2010/11

6

2

15

 

2011/12

5

1

2

 

2012/13

5

0

-5

 

2013/14

7

2

6.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

73

12

22.5

30.80%

 

 

 

Conclusion:

With the usual caveat that the relatively small sample size requires there does look to be something in the theory that promoted teams are underestimated in the early part of the season

 

 

Match Day 1:

The first matches for the promoted sides are as follows:

Burnley v Chelsea

Chelsea have played seven times against promoted sides in August and September since 2009/10 – all at home – and won all seven of them by at least two goals. They led at half time in six of the seven. 

Tip: no bet

 

Leicester v Everton 

Everton have played five matches against promoted sides in Aug/Sept since 09/10 for a record of W1, D1, L3 and a loss of 3.6 units backing Everton at level stakes. Backing Everton’s opposition at level stakes returned a profit of 11.8 units.

Tip: We’ll wait until nearer the time but we’ll be looking to back Leicester or oppose Everton here. 

 

QPR v Hull

Hull have played three, winning none, drawing twice and losing once against promoted sides in Aug/Sept since the 09/10 season. Hull’s record against promoted sides across all months of the season since 09/10 reads P10, W1, D4, L5 for -7.3 units or -6.7 units backing their opposition. 

Tip: Again, we’ll wait until closer the time but a back of QPR looks on the cards. 

 

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