Oddy Oddy Oddy - Logo
Premier League: Burnley v Chelsea
free bets bet 365

By Mark Phillips @betdetective

 

With reference to an article I wrote a couple of weeks ago which analysed the results in August and September of promoted sides to the Premier League which can be found in the soccer section.

In the last six seasons backing the promoted teams blindly in August and September produced a level stakes profit of 49.81 units from 104 bets with five of the six seasons showing a profit.

Our first Premier League bet of the season comes in the Leicester v Everton match.

 

All profit and loss figures are to level stakes and at average odds.

 

 

Leicester v Everton

Everton against promoted teams since the 09/10 season:

P30  W12  D11  L7

Screenshot 2014-08-15 10.43.27

 

Everton against promoted teams since the 12/13 season:

P12  W7  D3  L2

Screenshot 2014-08-15 10.47.52

Everton AWAY against promoted teams since the 09/10 season:

P15  W4  D8  L3

Screenshot 2014-08-15 10.50.34

 

Everton AWAY against promoted teams since the 12/13 season:

P6  W2  D3  L1

Screenshot 2014-08-15 10.52.21

 

Everton against promoted teams in August and September since the 09/10 season:

P5  W1  D1  L3

Screenshot 2014-08-15 10.53.06

 

Those trends are strong enough for me to want to oppose Everton here, either by laying them on Betfair or by backing the draw and the Leicester win. 

Bets:

1 unit Leicester at $3.23 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

1 unit Draw at $3.40 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

 

Burnley v Chelsea

Chelsea against promoted teams since the 09/10 season:

P30  W19  D7  L4

Screenshot 2014-08-15 10.54.28

 

Chelsea against promoted teams since the 12/13 season:

P12  W7  D2  L3

Screenshot 2014-08-15 10.55.18

 

Chelsea AWAY against promoted teams since the 09/10 season:

P15  W6  D5  L4

Screenshot 2014-08-15 10.56.05

 

Chelsea AWAY against promoted teams since the 12/13 season:

P6  W2  D1  L3

Screenshot 2014-08-15 10.58.30

 

Chelsea against promoted teams in August and September since the 09/10 season:

P7  W7  D0  L0

Screenshot 2014-08-15 11.02.12

The overall record of promoted teams in August and September combined with Chelsea’s record away from home against promoted sides since 09/10 makes them look opposable at Burnley. Chelsea have won all their seven matches against promoted teams in August and September but all those games were played at Stamford Bridge.

Bets:

0.5 units Burnley at $10.71 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

1 unit Draw at $4.82 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

Hull City are the other promoted team and they have a record of P10, W1, D4, L5 against promoted sides since 09/10 which suggests that we should be looking to oppose them against QPR but the stats only cover two seasons, 09/10 and 13/14 and in the latter of those two seasons Hull themselves were a promoted side. They are also underdogs against QPR so no bet is recommended. 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *