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Premier League: Swansea v Burnley
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By Mark Phillips  @betdetective

 

Swansea v Burnley

Continuing with our early season value hunting theme of looking at backing promoted teams in the Premier League in the first two months of the season the next match up is Swansea v Burnley. Actually, the first qualifying match of the weekend is Chelsea v Leicester but without boring you with endless stats about the game I can tell you it’s a no-bet affair. If Leicester happen to win at $16 then so be it. Much gnashing of teeth will ensue but that’s punting. 

 

Swansea against promoted teams since the 09/10 season:

Screenshot 2014-08-20 13.06.41

Swansea at HOME against promoted teams since the 09/10 season:

Screenshot 2014-08-20 13.08.49

Swansea against promoted teams since the 09/10 seasoning August and September:

Screenshot 2014-08-20 13.11.32

 

That’s a fair trend towards opposing Swansea by backing the draw there so digging a little deeper let’s look at how Swansea have fared against bottom six sides (it’s reasonably safe to assume that Burnley will be in the bottom six or thereabouts for most of the season) in the last five seasons. 

 

Swansea against bottom six teams since the 09/10 season:

Screenshot 2014-08-20 13.16.03

Swansea at HOME against bottom six teams since the 09/10 season:

Screenshot 2014-08-20 13.17.44

 

There is bound to be a lot of overlap with the above trends but even so some weight is added to the draw argument. I’ve not looked at Burnley’s trends as they’ve only spent one of the last five seasons in the top division.

 

 

Bet: 1 unit on the Draw at $3.98 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

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