We’ve hit the crossbar with a couple of bets recently in Paul Dunne tipped at $51 (54 hole lead) in the Perth Super 6. He led by 2 with 9 to play before being beaten into 2nd and in the Saudi Open we had Jake Mcleod also beaten into 2nd at $190 in the first round leader market.
So why are we not putting these bets up each way? The answer is that the Australian golf place markets are so uncompetitive. You can rarely bet each way and the place market – if there even is one – if often 1/6 or 1/7 the odds first 4 or 5. Compare this to the UK where first 7 or 8 places at 1/5 is common.
To illustrate how far behind the Australian golf markets are compared to the UK check out the screenshots below.
Odds.com.au shows none of this week’s tournaments while Oddschecker in the UK has seven.
Anyway, enough whinging and on to this week.
Doha Golf Club in Qatar is a desert links style par 72 at 7,374 yards. There is plenty of water in play so you can’t be too wild off the tee but in general it should favour the big hitters. Quel surprise. As always in the desert the wind will play a part, usually in the afternoon.
The clear favourite in the betting is Thomas Pieters and i make him much too short at current odds of $12. Pieters has all the talent in the world – as illustrated by top scoring in the last but one Ryder Cup – but has obvious temperament issues and has not won since August 2016 and it’s quite apparent by his body language that this is driving him nuts.
Our only win bet is on Andrea Pavan who finished 13th here in 2018 and who gives the impression that he’s ready to contend and has gained a few yards off the tee in 2019.
1 unit at $55 Betfair; 1 unit 1st round leader at $70 Betfair (i’d normally go 0.5 units here but he has an early tee time and looks decent overs.
A couple of others who i’m backing in the first round leader market due to very eary tee times are our old friend Jake Mcleod and Scott Jamieson.
Both have early tee times and Mcleod impressed at the WGC Mexico where he held his own with the best in the world while Jamieson is a total non winner who regularly appears at the top end of the leaderboard after one or two rounds before blowing his chances.
Jake McLeod 0.5 units each way 1st round leader (no idea of the place terms but assume first four 1/5 with Sportsbet) at $126
Scott Jamieson 0.5 unit win 1st round leader at $90 on Betfair