Sunderland lost 8-0 to Southampton recently and this result got me wondering about how teams have done in their next match following such a drubbing and how might Sunderland do in their next game, against Arsenal at home the following weekend.
In the last nine and a bit seasons (since the start of the 05/06 campaign) there have been 28 occasions when a team has lost by at least six goals.
Two of the 28 – Chelsea 8 Wigan 0 on 09/05/10 and Middlesbrough 8 Man City 1 (yep) on 11/05/08 were in the final game of the season.
I looked at the other 26 results and found that in the match immediately after a beating by at least 6 goals the defeated team won 15, drew 8 and lost just 3 for a return of +20.1 units at level stakes (77.3% ROI).
This compares to the record of the sides that handed out the 6+ goal beatings of won 13, drew 7 and lost 6 for a loss of 4.8 units (-18.5%).
The profit figure for the beaten teams is heavily bolstered by Wigan beating Spurs 1-0 at White Hart Lane at 12/1 on 28/08/10 in the match after they lost 6-0 to Chelsea at home.
Take that result out of the equation and you still have a tidy 32.4% ROI from the other 25 matches with the average odds of the 14 winning teams of 11/8.