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@TheTrendBettor’s AFL Round 2 Preview
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@TheTrendBettor’s Round 2 Preview

 

 

 

After going 7-1 on official plays, and 8-1 on all recommended plays, hopefully we can continue this amazing start to the 2018 AFL season! I played it pretty safe last week by playing only 0.5 or 1 unit plays due to the fact that it was round 1 – a round that is usually unkind to most punters – but with 6 favourites covering the line, this year’s opening round was a lot kinder than most.

 

 

Round 2 is also usually a tricky one, as the public only have one round of footy to go by. A common tendency of the public is to bet on what ever happened in round 1 – in round 2.

 

 

A prime example of how much weight the average punter thinks round 1 statistics and that trends will be replicated in round 2, is illustrated…if you look very closely, or have a magnifying glass…in the table below:

 

 

One of the strongest round 1 trends in recent history is the consistent number of games hitting the “Over” in the total points market. Although last week the “Over” went 4-5, when you exclude the Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne game due to the fact that it was played in torrential rain, “Over” hit 4-4, and the average total points scored was 188.1 compared to the round 1 average “Over/Under” set by the bookmakers of 182.8. I know you can’t just pick and choose stats to strengthen your argument, but matches played in weather this poor forces teams to completely throw out their general game plan, and any data collated from matches like these considered as an outlier.

 

 

In the last 7 seasons, the “Over” is 41-22 in all round 1 matches, and although the public may not know the exact number, they have the understanding that round 1 is at least one of the highest scoring and most free flowing footy they will see all season… and they’re right. On average, Round 1 has been the 2nd highest scoring round (round 23 is the highest – the round where usually roughly half the teams have sweet stuff all to play for) since 2012.

 

 

What do the bookmakers do the week after a high scoring round? They bump up the “Over/Under” total in round 2 – something they have done for 6 of the last 7 years (including this year). And what do the public tend to do the week after a high scoring week? They bet the “Over” regardless of what the bookmakers set it at. One of the best sayings in the sports wagering world is, “Average punters bet teams, great punters bet numbers”.

 

 

The “Over/Under” in this example, is the “team”. The average punters will back the “over” no matter what the number is in this situation, whereas the great punters will know that, on average, there has been a 4.9 total-points-scored decline from round 1 to 2 from 2012 to 2017 despite there being a 3.0 point increase in the average “Over/Under” set by the bookmakers.

 

 

By no means am I saying that I am a great punter, but hopefully I can pass on some knowledge and insight that will help you separate yourself from just the average punter, and ultimately do what we all want to do… beat the books!

 

 

 

Let’s get stuck into round 2!

 

 

Adelaide Crows $1.62 vs Richmond $2.30 – Adelaide Oval

Thursday Night, Line -8.5, Total 187.5

Key Trends:

  • Under is 10-0 in the last 10 Thursday night matches involving a side travelling interstate

  • Under is 11-2* in the last 13 Thursday night matches

    • 2* were both Richmond vs Carlton matches in round 1 (2017,2018)

  • Under is 17-5 in all Thursday/Friday night matches at Adelaide Oval, averaging 164.6 points

  • Under is 34-13 in all night matches at Adelaide Oval

  • Grand Final winners are 4-4 SU & ATS in the first Grand Final rematch since 2010

  • Richmond went 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS interstate in 2017

  • Adelaide were 10-3 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval in 2017

  • Adelaide are 3-2 SU & ATS against Richmond since 2014

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Total Points Scored – Under 187.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)

 

 

North Melbourne $3.20 v St Kilda $1.36 – Etihad Stadium

Friday Twilight, Line +18.5, Total 200.5

Key Trends:

  • Saints are 19-7 SU, 16-10 ATS in their last 26 games at Etihad Stadium

    • 12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS against Victorian sides

    • 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS as favourites

  • North are 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS in their last 19 games at Etihad Stadium

  • Saints are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against North Melbourne

 Recommended Bet: 1u St Kilda -17.5 @ $1.90 (William Hill/Centrebet)

 

 

Carlton $1.47 v Gold Coast Suns $2.70 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -13.5, Total 190.5

Key Trends:

  • Carlton are 5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium under Brendon Bolton

    • 3-2 SU & ATS against non-Victorian sides

  • Gold Coast are 1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games at Etihad Stadium

  • Carlton are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 games against Gold Coast

 Recommended Bet: (No official play): Gold Coast win @ $2.75 (Ladbrokes)

 

 

Collingwood $3.20 v GWS Giants $1.36 – MCG

Saturday Twilight, Line +20.5, Total 189.5

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 4-1 SU & ATS against GWS

    • 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS at the MCG

  • GWS are 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS at the MCG

  • GWS have only scored over 100 once at the MCG (103 vs Melbourne, 2013)

  • Collingwood are 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS in round 2 matches after losing round 1, under Nathan Buckley

  • Collingwood have conceded over 103 points just once in their last 11 games in Victoria against interstate sides. Collingwood are 6-4-1 SU, 6-5 ATS in that span

Recommended Play: 0.5u GWS team total points under 104.5 @ $1.85 (Bet365)

 

Brisbane Lions $3.20 vs Melbourne $1.36 – Gabba

Saturday Night, Line +18.5, Total 193.5

Key Trends:

  • Brisbane are 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS at the Gabba under Chris Fagan

    • Only beating 14th placed Fremantle, 16th Carlton, 17th Gold Coast

    • 0-3 SU & ATS in night matches, losing average of 64 points

  • Melbourne are 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS in their last 8 away interstate matches

  • Melbourne are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS in their last 3 matches against Brisbane

 Recommended Bet: 1u Melbourne -18.5 @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)

 

 

Fremantle $2.40 v Essendon $1.58 – Optus Stadium

Saturday Night, Line +10.5, Total 182.5

Key Trends:

  • Fremantle are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against Essendon

  • Essendon are 2-17 SU, 7-12 ATS in their last 19 matches interstate

  • Essendon were 2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS interstate in 2017

    • 2-0 SU & ATS as favourites

  • Fremantle were 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS as underdogs at home in 2017

  • Teams who lose by 50+ points in round 1, are 4-14 SU, 5-13 ATS in round 2

    • 2-6 SU & ATS when playing round 1 at home against an interstate opponent

 Recommended Play: 1u Essendon -9.5 @$1.90 (William Hill/Centrebet)

 

 

 

Western Bulldogs $1.65 v West Coast Eagles $2.25

Sunday Afternoon, Line -8.5, Total 189.5

Key Trends:

  • Bulldogs are 3-3 SU & ATS against the Eagles since 2015

    • 2-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

  • Under is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings between the two teams

  • Bulldogs are 11-3 SU & ATS against interstate sides at Etihad Stadium under Luke Beveridge

    • 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS in 2017

  • Eagles were 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS in interstate matches in 2017

  • Eagles were 2-3 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2017

  • Under is 5-3 in the last 8 matches at Etihad Stadium between the Bulldogs and interstate sides

 

Recommended Bet: 0.5u Total Points Scored – Under 189.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)

 

 

Sydney $1.42 v Port Adelaide $2.90 – SCG

Sunday Twilight, Line -16.5, Total 173.5

Key Trends:

  • John Longmire’s Sydney are 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS against Ken Hinkley’s Port Adelaide

    • 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS @ the SCG

  • Sydney are 18-6 SU, 16-8 ATS at the SCG in the last 2 seasons

  • Port Adelaide were 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS in interstate matches in 2017

Recommended Bet: 0.5u Sydney 1-39 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)

 

 

Geelong $1.62 v Hawthorn $2.30 – MCG

Monday Afternoon, Line -8.5, Total 187.5

Key Trends:

  • Geelong are 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS in their last 4 matches against the Hawks

  • When these two teams play, both teams have scored 83+ points in 4 of the last 5 games

  • When these two teams play on Easter Monday, both teams have scored 86+ in 6 of the last 8 games

  • Geelong are 12-11 SU, 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games at the MCG

  • Hawthorn are 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS in their last 12 games at the MCG

 

Recommended Bet: 2u Both Teams to Score 81+ @ $1.85 (Bet365)

 

 

Official Plays:

  • 1.5u – ADEL/RICH Total Points Scored – Under 187.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)

  • 1uSt Kilda -17.5 vs North Melbourne @ $1.90 (WillHIll/Centrebet)

  • 0.5u GWS team total points under 104.5 vs Collingwood @ $1.85 (Bet365)

  • 1u Melbourne -18.5 vs Brisbane @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)

  • 1u Essendon -10.5 vs Fremantle @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)

  • 0.5u WB/WCE Total Points Scored – Under 189.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)

  • 0.5u Sydney 1-39 @ $2.20 (Sportsbet)

  • 2u GEEL/HAW Both Teams to Score 81+ @ $1.85 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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