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AFL: Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast Suns - Betting Preview and Tips
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The Western Bulldogs host their first fixture at Cazalys Stadium in Cairns, with the Gold Coast Suns making their fourth trip north as the opposition.

Each of the three previous times the Suns have played at Cazalys they faced the Tigers and won two and lost one: 85-70 in 2011, 90-88 in 2012 and 44-53 in 2013.

The Suns should have fond memories of playing here despite the loss last year as in 2011 they recorded their 2nd win for the season (their 1st in the AFL) after a run of 8 straight losses while in 2012 this was their first win of the season after opening with 14 straight losses.

 

Western Bulldogs (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 5/10 (18/41)

ATS: 8/7 (28/31)

Twilight S/U: 1/4

Twilight ATS: 2/3 (9/7)

Interstate ATS: 1/3 (6/9)

6 day or less break S/U: 1/1

6 day or less break ATS: 1/1 (8/7)

Underdog ATS: 4/5 (21/24)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 9/6 (29/30)

Interstate: 3/1 (7/10)

6 day or less break: 1/0 (4/10)

Twilight: 3/2 (9/7)

Underdog: 4/5 (24/22)

 

Points

Average scored: 79.5

Average conceded: 96.5

Average Total: 176

Average Points Line: 182.4

 

Notable Trends

The Bulldogs are 4/10 over/under since the start of 2012.

 

 

 

Gold Coast (since 2012 in brackets)

S/U: 9/6 (20/44)

ATS: 9/6 (31/28)

Twilight S/U: 5/2

Twilight ATS: 5/2 (14/7)

Cazalys S/U: 2/1

Cazalys ATS: 3/0

7 day + break S/U: 8/5

7 day + break ATS: 7/6 (23/27)

Fav 0-15 points S/U: 2/0

Fav 0-15 points ATS: 2/0 (4/0)

 

Over/Under

O/U: 9/6 (30/29)

7 day + break: 7/6 (25/25)

Twilight: 4/3 (10/11)

 

Points

Average scored: 92.3

Average conceded: 91

Average Total: 183.3

Average Points Line: 181.6

 

Notable Trends

Nothing that stands out a mile but the Suns’ 14/7 ATS record in twilight matches is worth noting. They could also not have done much more than their 3-0 ATS record at Cazalys Stadium considering they won one match by  15, one by 2 and lost one by 9 when the respective lines were +37.5 in 2011 and 2012 and +26.5 last year.

 

Verdict and Tips:

The line stands at Suns -7.5 and I think this is at least a goal short of where it should be. The line would be closer to 15 points if Gary Ablett was fit but even with Ablett out the Suns’ midfield is packed with classy players who will all be keen to step up to the mark. Prestia, O’Meara, Swallow, Harbrow and Bennell all have the ability to dominate.

The Suns experience, and good memories, of playing in Cairns is also a plus while the Bulldogs having to travel north off a 6 day break is a significant negative.

 

Tips:

3 points Gold Coast -7.5 at $1.95 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

1 point Gold Coast over 24.5 points at $2.95 with Screenshot 2014-05-09 12.32.15

 

1 point Gold Coast by 40+ points at $5.0 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

 

 

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