Saturday 5th July 2014 13:00 LOC / 17:00 BST / 6th July 06.00 AEST Estadio Nacional Brasilia, Brazil
De Jong – CM – Injured
Fer – CM/AM – 10%
he Netherlands suffered a blow to their midfield with the news that Nigel de Jong has been ruled out of the rest of the World Cup after tearing a groin muscle against Mexico. He had to come off after just 9 minutes in the game that the Netherlands left it very late to turnaround and win.
Louis van Gaal must make a big decision on whether to stick with the 5-3-2 that he has started all the matches so far with or switch to the 4-3-3 which has been more effective when the Netherlands have needed to force the game. Costa Rica are likely to be reasonably defensive and play on the counter, van Gaal is unlikely to want to leave his side too open, especially with a lack of pace at the back.
Danny Blind should push into de Jong’s defensive midfield slot, with Bruno Martins Indi starting in the back 3 after recovering from concussion. Paul Verhaegh may keep his place on the right, he is considered to be better on the ball than Janmaat and the Netherlands are likely to see more possession than their opponents.
Wijnaldum and Kuyt should both keep their places, although Jonathan de Guzman will be pushing for a recall, while Leroy Fer is still a major doubt as he picked up an injury after the Chile game.
Despite Klaas-Jan Huntelaar’s heroics after coming off the bench against Mexico he will again be a sub as will Memphis Depay.
Expected Team (5-3-2)
Bench (from): Krul GK, Vorm GK, Janmaat RB, Kongolo CB, Veltman CB, Clasie CM/DM, de Guzman CM/RW, Fer CM/AM, Depay LW, Huntelaar ST, Lens ST/LW
Tactical Keys to the Game:
Motivational Keys to the Game:
The Netherlands will take heart from the late show that saw them advance against Mexico but Arjen Robben’s admission of going to ground too easily could come back to haunt him. If he goes down in the area he may not get favourable decisions from the referee as they will be looking for any sign of diving.
Duarte – CB – Suspension None Miller – CB – Injury
Costa Rica will be without Oscar Duarte who has played every game in the tournament thus far on the right side of the centre back trio. He represents a big loss in what has been a highly organised Costa Rica defence. Pinto is expected to want to retain the current system that has proved so successful in the previous games and so a straight swap is expected. Miller, who featured against England in their final group game, was injured in training on Tuesday and will be absent therefore Acosta, who came on in the win over Greece, is expected to step in.
In the unlikely event that Pinto doesn’t retain the same system there is a chance that one of Cubero, Brenes or Urena could come into the side. All have been regulars off the bench and would be the biggest candidates to start in either a 4-5-1 or a 4-4-2.
Key offensive players Ruiz and Campbell will start despite suggestions of fatigue. Diaz was struggling towards the end of the match with Greece but is expected to start as is fellow wing back Gamboa who was subbed in that game.
Expected Team (5-4-1)
Bench (from): Cambronero GK, Pemberton GK, Myrie RB/LB, Francis LB, Barrantes DM, Cubero DM, Granados DM, Calvo LW, Brenes ST, Urena ST
Tactical Keys to the Game:
Motivational Keys to the Game:
There hasn’t been much pressure on Costa Rica throughout the tournament but in the last match against Greece there was a slight sense of expectation given how poor Greece had been during their group games and how fortuitous they were to progress. Netherlands will undoubtedly be favourite to win this game which will benefit Costa Rica as they thrive on the underdogs tag and never would not have been expected to have advanced this far into the competition.
Football Form Labs Preview: Netherlands (1) v Costa Rica (10)
The Netherlands left it late against Mexico but two late goals turned around a match they looked like losing in sweltering conditions. Costa Rica, meanwhile, continued their incredible run with a penalties victory over Greece.
The Netherlands have a dream quarter-final with no CONCACAF nation ever having gone past this stage at the World Cup. Furthermore, the Netherlands record against CONCACAF nations since 1990 is W9-D1-L0. They’ve also won 13 of their last 14 competitive matches whilst scoring at least twice every time.
Costa Rica did an excellent job against Greece as they resisted despite going down to 10 men and then produced a superb set of penalties. Their last three matches, all against European sides, have featured just three goals and 18 of their last 23 competitive games have had fewer than three strikes. Since 2004 Costa Rica have won just one of their eight knockout games, but half have finished level and six have had fewer than three goals.
Since 1990 13 of the 24 World Cup quarter-finals have had fewer than three goals but 10 have had no more than one strike. In the same time 14 of 20 European Championship quarter-finals have had fewer than three goals. There have been 20 World Cup quarters or semis since 1990 where one team had played extra-time in the previous game and those sides have a W3-D8-L9 record with 14/20 having fewer than three goals and 12 being goalless at half-time. Furthermore, while only three suffered Loss/Loss defeats there were six Draw/Losses suggesting fatigue was an issue.
The Netherlands have recorded Draw/Win doubles in all their matches during this tournament and they’ve won 12 of their last 16 competitive matches when level at the break. We expect Costa Rica to sit back and make life difficult for the Dutch but they may pay for their extended efforts against Greece and tire as the match goes on.