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World Cup: Bosnia v Iran
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Bosnia & Herzegovina Screenshot 2014-05-28 07.54.34

• Defeat to Nigeria saw them crash out of the tournament after 2 games.
• Stuck to the 4-5-1 formation against Nigeria and it backfired badly, likely to change to 4-4-2. • Ibišević should get a start after coming off the bench twice.

Unavailable

None

Doubtful

Kolašinac – LB – 30%

Returning

None

Expected Team (4-4-2)

Screenshot 2014-06-25 12.58.10

Team News

Bosnia bowed out of the World Cup at the Group Stage after failing to get at least a point from their game with Nigeria.

Safet Sušić had made changes before the game, dropping Bičakčić and brining in Šunjić to the centre of defence and moving Lulic to LB to cover for the injured Kolašinac. Medunjanin came in.

The tactics did not work as Nigeria comfortably kept them out while also looking very dangerous in behind the defence.

With nothing to play for in their final game it’s likely Sušić will make further changes, Vedad Ibišević should start after coming off the bench to make an impact in both games. Medunjanin may drop back out of the side, meaning Misimović will drift over to the left from a central starting position.

Salihović may come in at LB for Lulic after recovering from injury, while Bičakčić and Kolašinac, if he recovers from injury, are both options to come into defence to replace Šunjić and partner Spahic.

Bench (from): Avdukić GK, Fejzić GK, Vršajević RB, Bičakčić CB, Vranješ CB, Kolašinac LB, Sušić DM, Hadžić CM, Medunjanin CM/DM/AM, Lulic LM, Višća RW, Ibričić AM

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   Bosnia had several chances to score against Nigeria, especially in the 1st half when they moved the ball quickly with short passing in the central attacking third. Iran are likely to flood this area so Bosnia will need to have good movement to break through.
  •   Bosnia scored a lot of their goals in qualifying through headed chances; Dzeko and Ibišević are both very dangerous in the air. Iran have tended to force teams to cross the ball in rather than play through them, this did not suit Nigeria or Argentina but it could favour Bosnia.
  •   Bosnia showed a considerable lack of pace at the back against Nigeria. Iran are likely to play defensively and on the counter attack, with Ghoochannejhad capable of getting in behind if they push too high up the pitch.Motivational Keys to the Game:

 As Bosnia are now unable to qualify the pressure may be lifted off the slightly and pushed onto Iran who still have a chance of progressing from the group. Bosnia will want to end their first major international tournament with a win.

 

Iran Screenshot 2014-05-28 08.33.30

• Stoppage time goal conceded against Argentina a devastating blow but still lots of positives.
• Need a win to have a chance of progression and even that may not be enough if Nigeria draw their match. • May not venture too far away from their solid defensive game plan, at least early on.

Unavailable

None

Doubtful

None

Returning

None

Expected Team (4-5-1)

Screenshot 2014-06-25 13.00.29

Team News

No fresh injuries have been reported at this stage following the 1-0 defeat against Argentina.

Unless forced it is unlikely many changes will be made to the team starting XI though this all depends how well the players recover from expending so much energy in their last match.

For the game against Argentina the changes from the opening game were Shojaei replacing Heydari which was actually a surprise with Shojaei being a more attack minded player though he did have more work to do without the ball than with it.

If Coach Queiroz does make an attacking change it might be to bring in Jahanbakhsh on the right flank and move Shojaei or Dejagah into a central area, but this seems more likely that Jahanbakhsh will be used as an impact sub from the bench.

More clues regarding selection may be revealed when they return to training ahead of the match and will be included in the update.

Bench (from): Ahmadi GK, Davari GK, Heydari RB, Mahini RB, Beitashour RB, Alenemeh CB, Beikzadeh LB, R. Haghighi DM, Hadadifar CM, Jahanbakhsh RW, Rahmani AM, Ansarifard ST

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   Iran were always likely to play to their strengths in this World Cup, holding Nigeria and nearly pulling off an unlikely draw against Argentina shows how well organised the coach has them. This game may require some more ambition in their approach but it is expected they can’t stray too far away from their defence minded set-up, though as they proved in the second half against Argentina they are capable of creating danger on the counter attack.
  •   Any hopes of Iran scoring the goals to win his game will surely involve Dejagah and Ghoochannejhad, these two players provide the attacking quality that is scarce in the Iranian squad, the platform that Nekounam and Teymourian provide from midfield cannot be overlooked either.
  •   A question mark for Iran is how much energy and effort the Argentina match took out of them. The whole team worked tirelessly without the ball for long spells of the game, having also conceded plenty of possession in their opening game against Nigeria also.Motivational Keys to the Game:
  •   Even though they lost to a stoppage time goal against Argentina and feel very aggrieved they didn’t get a penalty earlier in the game the Iranians took so much pride from the match, and the performance caused huge celebrations back in Iran.
  •   Only a win is good enough to give Iran a chance to make the next round and that is if Nigeria lose. The score in the other group game could have a big bearing on motivation in this game.

 

Football Form Labs Betting Preview:
Bosnia-Herzegovina (18) v Iran (32) Wednesday 25th June 17:00 BST

An intriguing game with Bosnia-Herzegovina having nothing to play for other than a first win in major tournament finals and Iran with an improbable chance of qualifying should they win and Nigeria lose.

Iran were desperately unfortunate not to get a draw against Argentina. They had a very plausible shout for a penalty and a great chance to take the lead. Whether they throw off their defensive shackles and go for the win from the outset or play to their strengths and then open up in the second half, will be interesting to see.

As you would expect, teams with no points playing a side with one point in the final group game of a major tournament have lost (38%) more often than they’ve won (26%). But when they’ve been the higher ranked side as Bosnia are, they’ve won 50% of games since 1970, albeit from a relatively small sample size of just 16 games.

Iran have won only one tournament finals match and lost seven with two of the three draws coming against lower ranked teams. Another factor in Bosnia’s favour is that Bettorlogic teams ranked 11-25 with zero points have won 10/17 final group games when facing a lower ranked side. The majority of those games have been high scoring with nine having Over 2.5 goals and seven Over 3.5 goals.

Bosnia are likely to get more crosses into the box than Argentina did against Iran and that should feed into the strengths of Edin Dzeko, more so than when he faced the height of the Nigerian defenders. Iran are seeking their first goal of the tournament which is something they’ve achieved in three previous World Cups.

 

 

Recommendation:

Bosnia-Herzegovina to win at $2.10 with Screenshot 2014-05-27 08.55.43

Correct score (half unit) 2-0 Bosnia at $8.50 with Screenshot 2014-05-09 12.32.15 who are offering a 50% bonus on correct score bets (pays $12.25). 

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