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World Cup: Brazil v Chile
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Brazil Screenshot 2014-06-04 10.13.08

• Increased confidence after a convincing win over Cameroon saw them top the group.
• No new injury worries and Scolari has a fully fit squad to choose from.
• Likely to name an unchanged side with Paulinho or Fernandinho in midfield the only choice.

Unavailable

None

Doubtful

None

Returning

None

Expected Team (4-2-3-1)

Screenshot 2014-06-27 13.15.33

Team News

Brazil finally looked like potential World Cup winners as they turned in a good performance against already eliminated Cameroon in their final group match to secure top spot.

Neymar was once again the key and he will be pivotal for the rest of the tournament if Brazil are to go far. His ability to interchange positions along the front three means he is difficult to pick up but often means that Hulk and Oscar are simply there to create space for Brazil’s star man.

Hulk showed no adverse reactions to the thigh injury that had kept him out against Mexico and should start again on the right.

Luis Felipe Scolari’s main decision will come in midfield as Paulinho once again performed poorly in the 1st half and was replaced at half time by Fernandinho. He immediately got involved in the game and helped create the goal for Fred before scoring himself. It’s unlikely however that he will start as Scolari has shown before that he prefers to keep faith with players despite them being criticised by external parties.

Bench (from): Jefferson GK, Victor GK, Maicon RB, Dante CB, Henrique CB, Maxwell LB, Fernandinho CM, Hernanes CM, Ramires CM/RW, Willian AM/RW, Bernard LW/RW, Jo ST

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   Brazil got off to a very fast, high intensity start against Cameroon, something which got the crowd on their side and allowed them to win the ball back several times in the opposition half. They will need to play with the same energy to force Chile back.
  •   Neymar is an expert at exploiting gaps in the opposition defence and his rotation with Hulk and Oscar oftens sees him appearing where the gaps are. Chile’s 3 man defence tends to spread quite wide to compensate for their adventurous full backs and this could leave them vulnerable at the back.
  •   Dani Alves and Marcelo are very adventurous full backs and push forward a lot. They receive little cover from higher up the pitch and Chile’s wing backs could get in behind them if they can break quickly.

    Motivational Keys to the Game:

 Brazil will need to get off to another quick start to keep the crowd on their side and ensure they don’t fall into the trap of allowing Chile to dictate the pace of the game. If they can force Chile to defend they will be cheered on by a passionate home crowd.

 

Chile Screenshot 2014-06-04 09.31.15

• Key midfielder Vidal fully expected to return after being rested against the Dutch.
• Reverting to 4-3-3 after using 3-5-2 but they have the flexibility & experience to adjust in game if necessary. • Everybody fit and available to play.

Unavailable

None

Doubtful

None

Returning

None

Expected Team (4-3-3)

Screenshot 2014-06-27 13.17.01

 

Team News

Bench (from): Herrera GK, Toselli GK, Rojas CB, Silva CB/DM, Albornoz LB/LM, Beausejour LB/LM, Fuenzalida RM, Carmona CM, Gutierrez CM, Orellana RW, Paredes ST, Pinilla ST

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   Central midfield is one area where Chile may feel they can get an edge. Arguably one of Brazil’s lesser performing units so far, Chile have the quality there to deny them time and space, and launch their own attacks.
  •   The wide areas will be key for both sides are which set of full-backs get the edge over their opposition. How Chile counteract the movement of the Brazilian front four will be key as they will look to drag the central defenders of Chile out of position to create spaces.
  •   Valdivia’s role will be vital for the team as he will be the main link between the midfield and the attack. It is imperative he does not play too deep or they will invite pressure on to themselves.

    Motivational Keys to the Game:

  •   No greater motivation or challenge for Chile than to face Brazil in Brazil. Reports suggest the loss to the Dutch did not damage their confidence and morale in a game with little to choose between the two.
  •   Big game for Vidal and Sanchez – two players who will be desperate to prove themselves at the highest level in the biggest games. Both are strongly tipped to leave their clubs in big money moves after the World Cup.

 Bravo’s transfer to Barcelona has been confirmed, and that may serve as a notable confidence boost to him. 

 

 

 

 

Football Form Labs Betting Preview: Brazil (1) v Chile (7)

Brazil are no bigger than 1.33 to advance to the quarter-finals despite facing a team that thrashed double-European Championship and current World Cup winners Spain less than 10 days ago. Midfielder Arturo Vidal was key to his team’s success in that match as his pressing caused a number of errors in the usually infallible Spanish midfield. Such was his prowess that Xabi Alonso had one of his worst ever games for club or country. Vidal was rested in Chile’s defeat to Netherlands but he returns here to hassle a midfield much weaker than the Spanish equivalent.

Brazil have won in 90 minutes in just two of their last five knockout matches and also in only four of their 11 similar matches against top-10 ranked sides. Since 1970, they’ve played in 64 knockout matches and they’ve won 37 times with 33 Over 2.5 Goals games. Their dominance is slightly weaker against teams from their own continent in that sample with 20/37 victories but these matches have seen slightly more goals (21/37 Over 2.5 Goals).

Chile have much less experience than their opponents in the latter stages of International tournaments. This is just their third appearance in a World Cup knockout match since 1970 and they’ve lost their previous two. Although Head to Head records are often worth taking with a pinch of salt, they can be much more indicative when looking at teams from the same continent as they tend to face off more frequently, particularly in South America. Chile have faced Brazil 13 times this Millennium and have lost on 10 occasions with just a single victory. Furthermore, they’ve lost all four in Brazil and the last three have featured a total of 14 goals.

In six previous World Cup knockout matches between two CONMEBOL sides, the higher ranked side has won on four occasions with four Over 2.5 Goals games.

In the Match Odds market we’re torn here as past data would suggest Brazil are a solid bet to win in 90 minutes but on the evidence of this tournament so far Chile look underrated, particularly as the hosts have relied so heavily on Neymar so far. At a higher price than Brazil to win in 90 minutes we much prefer Over 2.5 Goals here. Both teams look stronger in attack than defence and if, as we think, Chile will score we could be in for a cracker.

 

 

Recommendation:

Over 2.5 Goals at $1.80 with Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.49.05

 

 

Screenshot 2014-06-13 12.52.23

 

 

 

 

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