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World Cup: Brazil v Netherlands - Betting Preview and Tips
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Saturday 12th July 2014 17:00 LOC / 21:00 BST / Sun 13th July 06:00 AEST

Estadio Nacional Brasilia, Brazil 

 

Brazil Screenshot 2014-06-04 10.13.08

• The stunning defeat to Germany in the semi-final shocked the world and devastated the nation. • Thiago Silva is certain to return after serving a one-match ban.
• Luiz Felipe Scolari is likely to heavily rotate the team to try and restore some pride.

Unavailable 

Neymar – LW/ST – Injured 

Team News

Brazil will go into the game nobody wants to be part of hoping to restore some of their battered pride after the crushing defeat to Germany left the humiliated at their own tournament. The loss of Thiago Silva to suspension was often forgotten in the aftermath of Neymar getting injured but he probably proved to be the biggest difference for a Brazil team that had stumbled its way through the tournament. He is certain to return to captain the side in the third/fourth place play-off against the Dutch. Dante will drop out.

As it is Netherlands that Brazil are facing and not fierce rivals Argentina they are likely to make several changes. Jefferson may get a game in goal although as it could be Julio Cesar’s final cap he is likely to start. Dani Alves should return for Maicon at full back while David Luiz may be taken out of the spot light following his dismal performance against Germany and Henrique could be given a shot. Maxwell should come in on the left and Ramires may get a start alongside Gustavo in midfield with Marcelo and Fernandinho dropping out. Scolari has options in the middle and Paulinho or Hernanes could get some game time.

Willian should start on the right, something many people expected against Germany with Oscar moving centrally but Bernard could be given another run with Hulk missing out.

Fred is almost certain to miss out after fans booed him on Tuesday so Jo is likely to replace him.

Returning

Thiago Silva – CB – Suspension

Expected Team (4-2-3-1)

Screenshot 2014-07-11 15.36.39

Bench (from): Jefferson GK, Victor GK, Maicon RB, Dante CB, Henrique CB, Marcelo LB, Fernandinho CM, Hernanes CM, Paulinho CM, Hulk RW/LW, Fred ST

 

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   While the third/fourth place game is usually an open affair, Brazil are likely to start very quickly as they aim to get the crowd back on their side. This could mean a direct style trying to play in the Dutch half.
  •   Jo should provide more movement than Fred in the forward areas and Oscar, Bernard and Willian could be given the freedom to attack the Dutch defence. They will need to be careful to not neglect their defensive duties if the Dutch wingbacks push forward.
  •   David Luiz’ lack of awareness, leadership and defensive ability was badly exposed against the Germans. He will be firmly under the microscope and if he starts must be wary of the runs of Robben and Van Persie.

    Motivational Keys to the Game:

 The Brazilian fans turned on the team during the record defeat to Germany, the biggest margin Brazil have lost by since 1920. Fred was roundly booed every time he went near the ball and Brazil will have to start well to get the fans back on their side.

 

Netherlands Screenshot 2014-06-04 09.13.59

• Tired and disappointed after losing on penalties. Van Gaal claimed nobody wanted to take the first penalty.
• Van Gaal vehemently complained about the purpose of this game saying it was ‘unfair’ to make them play again. • Nigel de Jong made a stunning comeback after a Groin injury but is unlikely to be risked again.

Unavailable

None

Doubtful

De Jong – DM – 30% Fer – CM – 20%

Returning

None

Expected Team (4-3-3)

Screenshot 2014-07-11 15.37.30

 

Team News

The Dutch bowed out in the cruellest of circumstances as Argentina defeated them in a penalty shoot-out on Wednesday.

Questions will be raised over their character after van Gaal said that nobody wanted to step forward to take the first penalty, with Vlaar eventually doing so only to see his kick saved by Romero.

There are likely to be changes for the third/fourth place play-off with Janmaat starting on the right in place of Kuyt and Veltman could come into the centre of defence to give Vlaar’s knee a rest. Martins Indi should miss out as Netherlands switch back to a 4-3-3 but he could keep his place in the centre of defence instead of Vlaar.

Jordy Clasie could get a start, as Nigel de Jong is unlikely to be risked again in such a meaningless game; his recovery from a groin injury was nothing short of miraculous.

Depay should start on the left after some impressive performances throughout the tournament and Van Persie may be rested after a bout of illness with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar his likely replacement.

Tim Krul could be rewarded for his penalty shoot-out heroics against Costa Rica with a start in place of Jasper Cillessen.

Bench (from): Cillessen GK, Vorm GK, Verhaegh RB, Kongolo CB, Veltman CB, Martins Indi LB/CB, De Jong DM, de Guzman CM/RW, Fer CM/AM, Kuyt RW/ST, Huntelaar ST, Lens ST/LW

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   The Dutch have been pretty defensive throughout the tournament with the Costa Rica game and the second half against Australia the only times they have really come out and played. By changing to a 4-3-3 against Brazil they should have more freedom going forward.
  •   Depay has shown in spells that he could be amongst the next line of Dutch superstars and should be given a run out. His pace and skill will give Dani Alves or Maicon a test at full back and could pen them back, preventing their forward bursts.
  •   Janmaat and Blind will have to be well positioned as Brazil have looked for the direct ball in behind the full back to release the wide forwards. Both are sound defensively but with the lack of an extra defender in the centre-back role they could be caught out.

    Motivational Keys to the Game:

 The Dutch are not likely to be incredibly motivated in this meaningless game. It will be Van Gaal’s last as manager so he may want to go out on a high but they could be overwhelmed by the Brazilians fast start. Van Gaal also said after the Argentine loss that he was not in favour of these 3rd place matches. 

 

 

Football Form Labs Betting Preview: Brazil (6) v Netherlands (2)

Brazil and The Netherlands square off in the consolation match that no team wants to be playing in. The hosts were demolished by Germany in the first semi-final while Louis van Gaal’s side had to face the heartbreak of losing on penalties to Argentina. To further compound the lack of enthusiasm for either side here none of the expected starting XIs have a chance of winning the Golden Boot.

Brazil are the third home team to play in the consolation match in the last four editions of the World Cup after Germany in 2006 (a 3-1 win vs Portugal) and South Korea in 2002 (a 3-2 loss v Turkey). In all Finals since 1970 there have been 15 home sides in consolation matches and 11 have featured Over 2.5 Goals while eight have had four or more scores with just three of the 30 teams failing to net.

World Cup 3rd place playoff matches are often goal fests. All of the last nine matches have had Over 2.5 Goals while six have had Over 3.5 goals. Both teams usually score as well. The only team not to score in a World Cup consolation match since 1978 was in 1994 when Bulgaria were thrashed 4-0 by Sweden. Furthermore, six of the last eight editions have seen at least two goals before half-time.

With both teams expected to heavily rotate their teams for the squad it seems of little relevance to look at how either have done so far this tournament. Brazil have kept just one clean sheet in their six matches as four have had Over 2.5 Goals. The Netherlands scored 12 times in their opening four matches but then endured two consecutive goalless 120 minutes against Costa Rica and Argentina.

With little at stake here it would be wise to bet with caution but with such strong trends for lots of goals in these games it’s hard to ignore backing ‘overs’.

 

Recommendation:

Over 3.5 Goals at $2.50 with Screenshot 2014-06-13 14.59.08

 

 

 

Screenshot 2014-06-13 12.52.23

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