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World Cup: Germany v USA
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USA Screenshot 2014-05-27 12.28.17

• Dempsey bruised and battered, but not considered serious doubt at this stage.
• Altidore only absentee for the States who may consider one or two moves to freshen up. • USA refuse claims they will settle for a friendly draw that suits both nations.

Unavailable

Altidore – ST – Injury

Team News

Doubtful

Dempsey – ST – 90% Besler – CB – 70%

Returning

None

Expected Team (4-2-3-1)

Screenshot 2014-06-26 17.53.30

The USA are likely to still be without Jozy Altidore once more, while key man Dempsey has to be considered a slight doubt for the game against Germany. This is the case after their leading scoring so far was for the second game in a row, taken off injured late in the game. The USA did see several players go down with cramp during the game, Besler is the one player seemingly struggling most with the demands and so could be replaced.

Dempsey is very unlikely to be rested though on account of the USA having very few good options to replace him and the fact the knock was a very minimal one.

Besler is rated around 70% but at this stage only Altidore is ruled out and so changes in the team would be unforced, but they are possible considering Klinsmann will want to have his team in the best possible condition. The manager was quick to point out Germany has an advantage of a day more rest coming into the contest, so only by making some changes could he help address that.

Besler and also Geoff Cameron could benefit from a rest after less than convincing showings on the weekend, Zusi and Bedoya are other possible candidates to be replaced, but at this stage an unchanged line up is predicted as Klinsmann seeks continuity in the set up.

Bench (from): Rimando GK, Guzan GK, Yedlin RB, Chandler RB/LB, Gonzalez CB, Brooks CB, Diskerud CM, Davis CM/LM, Green AM/ST, Johannsson ST, Wondolowski ST

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   The USA will look to continue to maximise the speed and penetration they got down the right flank against Portugal. Fabian Johnson and Zusi moved well and frequently found open spaces and the byline, their crossing and final ball wasn’t ideal but if they can build on that, they can give Germany problems down the flank
  •   Better possession and decision making – the USA need to wise up and learn to control and manage situations much more professionally. Their use of the ball remains poor in this tournament, while their individual mistakes and poor decisions not to kill the game off cost them certain qualification against the Portuguese.

    Motivational Keys to the Game:

  •   USA only need a point to be certain of qualification, but only by winning can they qualify top and that is their initial aim. Though should the game be level around the hour mark, USA would likely be delighted to play out a cagey draw
  •   If they lose then they will hope that Portugal and Ghana draw, if not their goal difference should hold up better should Portugal win the game. A Ghana win is the concern IF they don’t get something from the Germans
  •   Klinsmann was bombarded with questions about whether they would organise a friendly draw to suit both sides, which he says is not going to be the case – the US soccer president also dismissed the notion they would play for a point.
  •   Worth noting this current group is known for honesty and real competitive sprit – by winning what for them was a

    meaningless game (having already qualified as winners) against Panama in the final qualifying match, they gave rivals Mexico a route into this competition

 

Germany Screenshot 2014-05-27 12.31.46

• Muller, Khedira and Boateng all doubts after picking up injuries in the draw with Ghana.
• Germany only need a draw to win the group, as the USA only need a draw as well the game may be slow paced. • Hummels recovered from injury to start against Ghana and showed no ill effects.

Unavailable

None

Doubtful

Muller – ST/RW – 90% Boateng – RB/CB – 30% Khedira – CM – 60%

Returning

None

Expected Team (4-2-3-1)

Screenshot 2014-06-26 17.53.37

Team News

Germany suffered some knocks and strains in the hard fought draw with Ghana, a result that leaves them needing only a point to win the group.

Thomas Muller suffered a nasty looking head injury in the dying seconds and had blood pouring from the wound but it looks as though he didn’t need stitches and should be fine to play against the USA.

Jerome Boateng was replaced at half time after picking up a thigh strain and missed training on Sunday. He is a major doubt and it could see Philip Lahm needing to switch back to the right back spot with Bastian Schweinsteiger coming into midfield.

Sami Khedira strained a ligament in his knee and was also subbed. He missed training on Sunday but it is hoped he will resume in plenty of time for the USA match and be able to feature. Schweinsteiger could also come in for him if Joachim Low decides to go with Mustafi again or Großkreutz instead of moving Lahm from midfield.

Mats Hummels recovered well from a thigh injury to feature against Ghana and showed no ill effects meaning he will be fine to take his place against the USA.

Bench (from): Weidenfeller GK, Zieler GK, Großkreutz RB/LB/AM, Durm LB, Ginter DM/CB, Mustafi CB, Kramer DM/CM, Schweinsteiger CM/DM, Schurrle AM/ST, Draxler LW/RW/AM, Podolski LW/ST, Klose ST

Tactical Keys to the Game:

  •   Germany control the ball very well, something that could be very important given the expected temperature and humidity of the playing conditions. The USA have played both games in the evening and their all action style may not be suited to a lunchtime kick off, meaning they can’t press the Germans in the way they’d like.
  •   The front three rotate very well, dropping off and moving into the centre when there is space available, so if Muller moves wide Gotze can take up a position in the box as shown by the 1st goal against Ghana. This movement could be too much for the USA who struggled against Portugal with Ronaldo coming inside.
  •   Fabian Johnson attacks extensively down the right side for the USA and Howedes will need cover from Gotze or one of the midfielders to stem his runs. His pace could be too much for Howedes, playing out of his normal position at CB.

    Motivational Keys to the Game:

 Germany only need a draw to win the group and with the USA only needing a draw to progress the game could be very slow paced and cagey. Even with a defeat it is unlikely that Germany will not progress due to their goal difference.

 

 

 

Football Form Labs Betting Preview:
USA (10) v Germany (2), Thursday 26th June 17:00 BST

A point is enough for both teams to advance and with such a strong German influence in the USA squad it is perhaps not surprising to see the shortest draw price of the tournament.

Since 1980 their have been seven matches in this situation in World Cups, Copa Americas, Euros and African Cup of Nations where a draw would send both teams through from the group stage and three of the matches have finished all-square, although that includes just one of four since 1996. Interestingly six of the seven matches had fewer than three goals and the result at half-time was the same as at full-time in all seven.

The USA dominated the play against Portugal but with Jozy Altidore injured they lacked some penetration up front and it was not a game full of chances. They’ve won only one of their eight games against top-10 ranked sides back to the last World Cup but that was a 4-3 friendly success against Germany last year and they’ve managed a draw in half the games, with half also having fewer than three goals.

Germany have lost only two of their last 17 group games and have lost just one of their last 23 matches (against the USA) generally. Since 2008 they’ve played 13 competitive matches against nations ranked 6-20 and have won 10 times, while seven of the last eight (since the start of the last World Cup) have had at least three goals.

There are conflicting trends in this match and what is happening in the other game may affect the pattern of this game so we wouldn’t get heavily involved pre-match. If the game is level at half-time both sides may settle for the draw in the second half but Germany are likely to set out initially to win the game. If they are a goal up at half-time the USA may settle for a narrow defeat as that could be enough to send them through but otherwise the draw looks the best value.

 

 

Recommendation:

Draw at $3.30 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

Correct score (half unit): 0-0 at $10 with Screenshot 2014-05-09 12.32.15 (paying $14.50 with their 50% extra bonus)

 

 

 

Screenshot 2014-06-12 20.13.28

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