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AFL: Port Adelaide vs Essendon
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By @betdetective

 

A new season is upon us – well, we’re approaching week 3 – and I spent a good while devising an in-play strategy in the off season which took a figurative hammer to the solar plexus when Betfair stopped me using a VPN to circumnavigate this country’s ridiculous and infuriating ban on internet betting in-play. Horseracing? that’s fine! the tax on the poor AKA pokies? all good, get your money out and start pumping away!

Anyway, i’ve been phoning up and it’s not been too annoying so far…

 

In-play betting is not so different to pre-match in that it pays to do your homework and come into the match with a set plan. If a bet or trade does not eventuate then so be it. Patience is key. Opportunities may still arise from what you are witnessing with your own two eyes, sure, but having a plan is still, well, the plan. 

 

The general plan is to get with favourites if they start badly and trade out for a green book (profit both ways) when they come back and hit the front.

A fine example of this was my first trade of the season when Hawthorn played Geelong at the MCG in round 1. 

I laid Geelong at $1.20 when they were 31 points ahead towards the end of the second quarter, expecting a fightback from the Hawks in the 3rd period. The reigning champs did just that and at the end of the 3rd Q they led by 2 and i backed them back at $2.28 for a 2.5 unit profit whichever team won. 

 

Not every trade will go as smoothly as that but we will attempt to protect our bank, take the loss if we have to and hopefully make the losses small and wins bigger.

The opening match of round 3 sees Essendon go to the Adelaide Oval to take on Port Adelaide as 45.5 point underdogs.

 

Since the start of 2014 Port have been 30+ point favourites on 11 occasions, winning 10 and losing one. In eight of the 10 victories they have trailed on the scoreboard at some point after the middle of the opening quarter and i’ll be looking to get with Port in the first half if they trail by 15 points and can be backed at $1.50 or bigger and look to even the book up when they hit $1.12. 

 

 

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