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AFL: Round 19 Trends Analysis and Tips
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Official plays:

4u Haw/Syd Under 166.5 @ $1.90

2u NM/Melb Either Team By Under 24.5 @ $2

1u GWS 1-39 @ $2.75

1u Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.60

2u Richmond 1-39 @ $2.20

3u Geelong 1-39 @ $2.30

3u WB/Ess Either Team By Under 19.5 @ $2.10

2u Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25

0.5 Duggan Over 19.5 disposals + Kennedy Most Goals @ $3.75


Hawthorn v Sydney – MCG


Hawks are 7-9-1 SU, 8-9 ATS, 4-13 Over

Swans are 10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS, 6-11 Over

Hawks are 5-2 SU & ATS in their last 7 matches against Sydney

  • 2-2 SU & ATS at the MCG

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the two sides

  • All 5 were night matches

Hawks are 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS at the MCG in 2017

The last 5 Hawthorn matches at the MCG have been decided by under 24.5

Teams travelling back from WA (except for WA sides) are 9-5 SU, 5-9 ATS in 2017

Swans are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 matches

  • 5-0 SU & ATS in their last 5 matches away from the home

Swans are 6-3 SU & ATS in their last 9 matches at the MCG

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 night matches at the MCG

Teams travelling back from WA (except for WA sides) are 9-5 SU, 5-9 ATS in 2017 (Hawks)

9 of the last 13 matches between these two clubs have been decided by under 20 points

Under is 14-0 in Thursday/Friday Night Matches since Round 10

  • 19-6 in 2017


Six weeks into the season, these two clubs found themselves in the unfamiliar position of 17th and 18th on the ladder, but since then they have turned their seasons around. The Hawks have lost just one of their last five matches, and the Swans have won 10 of their last 11, with their one loss being to the Hawks. These two rivals have had a great rivalry over the last decade, with 9 of the last 13 meetings being decided by under 20 points, and I expect this one to be another close one. I suspect the low scoring trend on Thursday/Friday nights to continue. Swans by 4 points.

Recommended Bet: Total Points – Under 166.5 @ $1.90




North Melbourne v Melbourne – Blundstone Arena


Roos are 4-13 SU, 7-10 ATS, 10-7 Over

Dees are 10-7 SU, 7-10 ATS, 9-8 Over

North are 16-0 SU in their last 16 matches against Melbourne

  • 8-2 ATS since 2010

  • 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS at Blundstone Arena

  • Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings

North are 8-2 SU & ATS at Blundstone Arena since 2014

Dees are 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 interstate matches


North Melbourne have lost seven in a row are sitting in 17th on the ladder, but Melbourne will know not to take them easy as they haven’t beaten the Roos since 2006 – 16 unsuccessful attempts in a row, including one earlier in the season. Even since then, this looks like a completely different North Melbourne side as they continue to inject youth into their side. The Dees will get over the line if they’re any bit serious about their season, but I wouldn’t be the least surprised if they let this one slip considering that the Roos play this ground very well. Dees by 13 points

Recommended Bet: Either Team By Under 24.5 @ $2




GWS Giants v Fremantle – Spotless Stadium

GWS are 10-5-2 SU, 6-11 ATS, 8-9 Over

Freo are 7-10 SU, 8-9 ATS, 8-9 Over

Giants are 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS v Freo

  • Won by 92 in only match at Spotless Stadium

Giants are 4-1-1 SU, 1-5 ATS at Spotless Stadium in 2017

11 of the last 12 GWS matches have been decided by under 24 points

5 of the 6 matches at Spotless Stadium have been decided by 16 points or less

Freo are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS away from Domain Stadium in 2017


After being touted as many people’s premiers earlier in the season, the wheels have fallen of the wagon a bit for the Giants, winning just one of their last six matches. They have a great opportunity to turn their season around late in the season as the Giants come up against a Fremantle side that have won just once in the last two months. The Giants will get the job done, but not as easily as many would suspect as even though GWS have been winning at Spotless for most of the season, they’ve only won by over 3 goals once this season. Giants by 28.

Recommended Bet: GWS 1-39 @ $2.75





Port Adelaide v St Kilda – Adelaide Oval


Port are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS v St Kilda under Ken Hinkley

  • 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS at Adelaide Oval

Port are 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS at Adelaide Oval against interstate sides in 2017

  • Under is 5-2

Under is 10-1 in the last 11 matches at Adelaide Oval

Saints are 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS at Adelaide Oval

Saints are 4-13 SU, 6-11 ATS interstate under Alan Richardson

Saints are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS without Nick Riewoldt, under Alan Richardson

Under is 10-4 in the last 14 interstate matches involving St Kilda


With both teams coming off a loss last week, this match could be pivotal to their seasons. Top four is starting to slip away for the Power, just as is the eight for the Saints. Rain is expected for this game and it might help keep it close, but the Saints have traditionally struggled without Nick Riewoldt. I expect the struggles to continue. Port by 29

Recommended Bet:             Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.60

 DEPENDING ON WEATHER: Under 156.5 @ 1.91






Gold Coast v Richmond – Metricon Stadium


Suns are 6-11 SU, 8-9 ATS, 9-8 Over

Tigers are 11-6 SU, 12-5 ATS, 4-13 Over

Suns are 3-3 SU, 5-1ATS v the Suns

  • 1-0 SU & ATS at Metricon Stadium

Suns are 4-4 SU & ATS at Metricon Stadium in 2017

Tigers are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS interstate in 2017

Suns are 1-4 SU & ATS in night matches at Metricon since 2016.

  • All losses were under 39 points


The Suns have very little to play for and it shows in most of their games this season, but they haven’t been too bad at home this season, winning half of their matches. I expect a better performance than the tripe they’re capable of displaying lately, but I think the top 4 Tigers will be too good. Tigers by 28.

Recommended Bet: Richmond 1-39 @ $2.20





Carlton v Geelong – Etihad Stadium


Blues are 5-12 SU, 10-7 ATS, 7-10 Over

Cats are 11-5-1 SU, 8-9 ATS, 8-9 Over

Blues are 1-6 SU, 5-2 ATS v Geelong since 2011

Vic teams that are 20+ point faves vs other Vic teams are 8-4 SU, 0-12 ATS in 2017

  • Carlton

Blues are 4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS at Etihad Stadium under Brendan Bolton

  • 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS in 2017

Blues are 4-8 SU, 9-3 ATS as underdogs in Victoria in 2017

Cats are 9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS in Victoria in 2017

  • 3-0 SU, 2-1 at Etihad Stadium

Cats are 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS as favourites in 2017


The Blues were very disappointing last week v the Lions, and they will be eager to play to their potential back home at Etihad Stadium against the Cats, who were also disappointing against the Crows last week on the road. I think the Cats will win as they have way too much to play for to be losing to a 16th placed side, but as the “20-point favourite” trend suggests, it won’t be easy. Cats by 16

Recommended Bet: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.30




Western Bulldogs v Essendon – Etihad Stadium


Bulldogs are 9-8 SU, 6-11 ATS, 6-11 Over

Bombers are 9-8 SU, 10-7 ATS, 9-8 Over

Bombers are 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS v the Bulldogs since 2011

  • 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS in the last 2 meetings

Bombers are 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS in Melbourne in 2017

  • 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS at Etihad Stadium

Bulldogs are 8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS in Melbourne in 2017

  • 6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS at Etihad Stadium

This is the first time the Bulldogs have been underdogs playing in Melbourne in 2017

Bombers are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS as favourites in 2017


Round 19 uniquely dishes up nine matches with all teams involving one team in the top 9 and other team in the bottom 9, but no game is separated closer than the game involving the 8th placed Bombers and the 10th placed Bulldogs. Even though most would say that the Bombers have had a better season than the Bulldogs, the Dogs are hanging on for dear life and are on the same amount of wins. Last week’s win could be the turning point in the Dogs’ season, winning comfortably against the Suns. All the money has been on the Bombers this week, but I’m not as convinced as other and I suspect that this will go down to the wire. Bulldogs by 3.

Recommended Bet: Either Team By Under 19.5 @ $2.10





Collingwood v Adelaide – MCG


Pies are 7-10 SU, 9-8 ATS, 9-8 Over

Crows are 13-4 SU, 12-5 ATS, 7-10 Over

Pies are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS v the Crows since 2014

  • 0-1 SU & ATS at the MCG

Crows are 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS at the MCG in their last 8

Pies are 3-8 SU, 4-9 ATS at the MCG in 2017

  • All losses have been under 39

Pies are 2-5 SU, 6-1 ATS as underdogs in 2017


The Pies have won their last two matches and are starting to play decent footy, but they have a tough task this week against the top of the ladder Crows. I think the Crows will get the job done, but I don’t think they blow it out. If they have a big enough lead, they may take their foot off the pedal late, potentially flattering the score line as they continue their march into September. ­Crows by 18

Recommended Bet: Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25





West Coast v Brisbane – Domain Stadium


Eagles are 9-8 SU, 7-10 ATS, 7-10 Over

Lions are 4-13 SU, 10-7 ATS, 11-6 Over

Eagles are 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS against the Lions in the last 6 meetings

  • 2-0 SU & ATS at Domain Stadium

Eagles are 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS at Domain Stadium in 2017

West Coast win and cover 83% of the matches at Domain the week after losing interstate since 2015

  • 68% the week after winning interstate

The Lions are 0-7 SU, 4-3 ATS at Domain Stadium since 2011

The Lions are 2-7 SU, 8-1 ATS away from the Gabba in 2017

  • 8-1 ATS is the best away record in the league


Even though they’ve had more wins than losses this season, the Eagles are staking a claim in being 2017’s most disappointing team of the year. I have very little doubt they will win as all hell would break loose if they dropped this game to the bottom placed Lions at home, but I don’t have much confidence in them against the best travelling side (spread betting wise) of 2017 even though that history has showed that the Eagles bounce back well after losing on the road. Anything could happen in this game, the range is too big for me to find any value on either team. Eagles by 52.

Recommended Bet: Duggan Over 19.5 disposals + Kennedy Most Goals @ $3.75



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