Season to date: 23 bets for +6.12 units
One winner from three bets last weekend for a small profit.
Two bets this weekend starting on Saturday with Melbourne City to beat Melbourne Victory.
We’ve done very well by siding with Victory this season but City are improved over the last few weeks and our model makes them closer to a $2.80 chance with Victory around $2.60. The availability of $3.50 with both Ladbrokes and bet365 means we have to be on City.
It is very hard to envisage Victory not scoring in any game at the moment as they are playing as attractive a brand of football i’ve seen in the A League in my eight years in Australia, so it’s worth investigating a few sub markets rather than diving straight in at the 5/2 available on a City win.
Over 2.5 goals is $1.91
City draw no bet is $2.30
City to win and both teams to score is $6
All three of those bets represent some value in my eyes as the match up screams goals and we are going to add 0.5 units at $6 for City and BTTS to go with City at $3.50 with Ladbrokes for a single unit.
Our other bet is on Western Sydney Wanderers to get the better of Adelaide, who continue to play well but let themselves down defensively. I’m hoping that WSW have enough up front to do the business. WSW beat Central Coast 2 weeks ago but sandwiching that game were comprehensive defeats by Sydney and Victory. They should find things easier in Adelaide.
1 unit WSW at $3.70 with Ladbrokes