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AFL: Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn
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by @betdetective

 

The tie of round three takes place at Etihad as the middle game on Sunday. Why the AFL scheduled it there i’ve no idea but let’s face it, nor do they. 

 

The Bulldogs have continued their excellent form of 2015 with wins over Freo and St Kilda this term and they have certainly been visually impressive. How highly we can rate the win over the Dockers is hard to call as when Ross Lyon’s sides play badly they generally stink the place out, and that they did. 

 

Hawthorn got a shock in round one against the Cats, going behind in the 2nd quarter, fighting back to lead in the 3rd before going down by 5 goals at the finish.

 

The Cats were good that day, led by Patrick Dangerfield who dominated the midfield but in round two the Hawks showed their true colours, beating West Coast by 46 points.

 

Hawthorn don’t play at Etihad a whole lot they’ve won 15 of their 19 matches there since 2009 and 4 of 6 since 2014 so it should not be too much of a disadvantage although it will suit the Dogs better than the MCG. 

 

We have a pre-match play and an in-play plan.

 

Hawthorn just have to be backed at a cats whisker short of even money. It’s a slight worry that Pinnacle have been keen to lay the Hawks as they move their lines based on the money they take from sharp punters but with the Bulldogs’ form a little hard to assess we have to be on. 

 

1.5 units win Hawthorn at $1.98 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 15.52.18

 

 

For the in-play plan i’ve looked at the 8 matches since 2014 when Hawthorn have started at odds of $1.72 or greater and they won 6 of the 8 and in 5 of the 6 they were behind at some point.

 

I’ll be looking to get on the Hawks if i can get $2.50 in the first or 2nd quarter with the view of evening the book at $1.70 or taking a loss at $3.0. I want to be with the Hawks in the 3rd quarter though so may let their odds drift past $3.0 if it’s late in the 2nd period. 

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