by @thetrendbettor

Melbourne $2.60 v Richmond $1.55 – MCG

Tuesday Night, Line +12.5, Total 175.5 – Chance of rain

Melbourne are 2-2 SU & ATS & Over in 2018

Richmond are 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Melbourne are 3-1 SU & ATS against Richmond since 2014

• Teams who lost by 20+ points as favourites the week before, are 4-2 SU & ATS in 2018 (Melbourne)

• Melbourne are 7-8 SU, 3-12 ATS at the MCG under Simon Goodwin

• 15 of Melbourne’s last 19 matches at the MCG have been decided by under 24.5 points

• Richmond are 14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 matches at the MCG

Comments: If this was just an ordinary game, I don’t think there would be any doubt that clearly Richmond would be the team to back given the trends, but I feel that this is a good spot for Melbourne.

Melbourne got belted last week against Hawthorn, absolutely embarrassed. But when a club gets metaphorically hanged by the public, teams tend to respond. See: Western Bulldogs v Essendon after getting smacked by the Eagles. See: Essendon v Port Adelaide after losing to the Western Bulldogs. See: Adelaide vs Sydney in Sydney after getting embarrassed by Collingwood on their home turf… you get my point.

If Melbourne are even half the team they say they are, they would want to come out firing, especially on what is now their biggest match of the year. With that being said, to win, they would have to beat a team that has probably the best home ground record in the league at the moment.

I’m expecting a belter of a game in this one, and I’m expecting it to go close.

Recommended Bet: 2u Either team to win by under 24.5 points @ $1.83 (Sportsbet)

Collingwood $1.80 v Essendon $2.05 – MCG

Wednesday Afternoon, Line -2.5, Total 180.5

Collingwood are 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 Over in 2018

Essendon are 2-2 SU & ATS & Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Essendon are 3-1 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches against Collingwood

• Collingwood are 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in ANZAC day clashes since 2010

• Essendon are 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in their last 8 matches at the MCG

• Collingwood are 5-11-1 SU, 9-8 ATS in their last 17 matches at the MCG

• Favourites are 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS in ANZAC day clashes since 2010

• “Over” is 7-4 in Essendon’s last 11 matches at the MCG

• “Over” is 7-3 in the last 10 day matches at the MCG

• “Over” is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the two sides

Comments: There were no real conclusive trends in this one. Neither team seems to have the clear advantage when Collingwood and Essendon collide. There is rain to be expected in the morning, but is meant to clear up for the game.  “Over” has been the clear trend in afternoon matches at the MCG of late – as well as when these two teams meet. I’m going with the over on this one.

Recommended Bet: 1u Over 179.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Sportsbet)

ANZAC Day Medal Bets:

• 0.2u Steele Sidebottom @ $8 (Crownbet)

• 0.1u Joe Daniher @ $13 (Sportsbet)

• 0.1u Dyson Heppell @ $11 (Crownbet)

• 0.1 Tom Phillips @ $41 (Sportsbet)