Brisbane meet Carlton at the Gabba on Saturday night and trying to work out the motivation of each team is as tricky as trying to find the winner.
Brisbane have played 20 games at night at the Gabba since 2014 and they’ve lost 16 of them. They are 8/12 ATS and 7/13 o/u.
Carlton’s record away from Etihad in the same period is equally unconvincing at 3 wins from 25 matches with one game drawn. They went 15/10 o/u and 10/15 ATS.
In matches like this it often pays to look laterally to find a bit of value and with the line moving in the Lions’ direction this morning we have an opportunity of a low risk wager presented to us.
We can still get Lions -2.5 with Hills UK (and BWIN) and +7.5 on Carlton with Palmerbet (they go to $2 lines at 4pm today so the brave will wait it out and see if they hold the 7.5 point line).
1 unit Brisbane -2.5 at $1.91 with
1 unit Carlton +7.5 at $1.92 with