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AFL: Geelong v Essendon
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By Tom Sermani @tom_sermani 

 

Round 15 gets underway with the Cats against the Bombers at Etihad on Friday night.

Both teams have their own worries with Geelong beaten every other week since round 5 and the whole Essendon Football Club still under an ASADA shaped cloud. 

 

 

Geelong:

Season record: 8/4

Season ATS: 6/6

 

ATS Records in 2014 (since start of 2012 in brackets)

6 day break: 2/4 (11/11)

Night games: 4/3 (18/15)

Favs of 15.5-30 points: 3/2 (8/11)

Etihad: 0/1 (5/7)

Home State Fav: 5/2 (15/20)

 

OVER/UNDER 2014 Record (since 2012 in brackets)

This season 6/6 (32/28)

6 day break: 3/3 (12/10)

Night games: 4/3 (17/16)

Favs of 15.5-30 points: 

Etihad: 1/0 (6/5) 

Home State Fav: 3/3 (16/18)

VERDICT: No strong trends

 

 

Essendon:

Season record: 7/5

Season ATS: 5/7

 

ATS Records in 2014 (since start of 2012 in brackets)

6 day break: 1/3 (5/10)

Night games: 5/4 (17/16)

Underdogs of 15.5-30 points: 1/1 (3/5)

Etihad: 3/3 (9/17)

Home State Underdog: 3/2 (8/10)

 

OVER/UNDER 2014 Record (since 2012 in brackets)

This season 4/8 (23/33)

6 day break: 2/2 (5/10)

Night games: 3/6 (12/21)

Home state underdog: 2/3 (5/13) 

Etihad: 2/4 (11/15)

Verdict: Lean towards opposing the Bombers ATS with fair trend towards the unders

 

The total points line is set at 182.5 and eight of the last nine of Essendon’s matches have gone under 179 points and they’ve have an average of 160.66 points scored in their matches in 2014. 

 

Bet Suggestion: Total Points Under 182.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

 

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