Geelong $1.44 v GWS Giants $3 – GMHBA Stadium

Friday Night, Line -16.5, Total 163.5

Geelong are 3-3 SU & ATS, 2-4 Over in 2018

GWS are 4-1-1 SU, 1-5 ATS, 2-4 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Geelong are 18-0 SU, 15-3 ATS in their last 18 matches at GMHBA against teams apart from Sydney

• “Under” is 7-1 in the last 8 matches at GMHBA

• Geelong are 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS in their 3 matches against GWS at GMHBA

• GWS are 2-5-1 SU, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 matches outside of NSW/ACT

• “Under” is 6-1 in GWS’ last 7 matches outside of NSW/ACT

• Geelong are 6-1-1 SU, 6-2 ATS the week after losing ATS at GMHBA

Comment: Geelong haven’t lost at home (except against Sydney… thrice) for a long time, not since 2015 in fact, and I don’t think an undermanned GWS will be the side to do it, especially since the Cats will be on their toes after last week’s loss to the Swans. “Under” is 7-1 in the last 8 matches down the highway, and with GWS’s inability to put up a decent score on the road, there is definite value in combining the two bets.

Recommended Bet: Geelong win & under 163.5 points @ $2.70 (Sportsbet same game multi)