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AFL: Grand Final Trends and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor




Adelaide Crows v Richmond Tigers


Crows are 17-6-1 SU, 16-8 ATS, 10-14 Over

Tigers are 17-7 SU, 18-6 ATS, 7-17 Over

Tigers are 11-2 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2017

  • 3-2 SU & ATS against interstate sides

  • Over is 3-10

Crows are 6-2-1 SU, 4-5 ATS in their last 9 matches at the MCG

Over is 14-4 in the last 18 Adelaide matches at the MCG

  • Average 197 points

Crows are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 matches against the Tigers

  • Margins of 76, 36, 36




Two of the hottest teams in Adelaide and Richmond face off in the last Saturday in September, and rightfully so as the Crows have been undeniably the best team all year, whilst the Tigers have won 7 of the last 8 as they continue to dream. The stats and trends in this match are pretty conflicting, as both sides have obviously had superb seasons. One team is generally high scoring whilst the other isn’t, making it tough to identify objective trends in this match. I’m taking this as a sign to not over complicate things. Although the thought of seeing thousands of Richmond fans screaming “Yellow and Black!” after winning their first flag in 37 years is appealing, Adelaide have been the best team all year, and have the far better side on paper than Richmond. It is for that reason I am tossing aside the trends, and just following my head. I believe Adelaide will win and could quite possibly bring home their first flag since 1998, quite comfortably if they’re playing their best champagne footy. Crows by 29

It is the last game of the year, and with over 40 units already profited in the 2017 AFL season already, it’s time to go out with a bang!



Matt Crouch has collected the most disposals on the ground in 6 of his last 9 matches.


  • 2u Most Disposals @ $2.55 (Crownbet)

  • 1u Norm Smith E/W @ $8/$3.50 (Sportsbet)

Eddie Betts has kicked the first goal 3 times this season.

  • 0.5 unit First goal scorer @ $10 (EDITED: not 5 units) (Bet365)

Adelaide have been the best team all year, and that will be on full display on Saturday

  • 3u Adelaide -5.5 $1.95 (Bet365)



I would like to finish off this preview by thanking the people who have followed @TheTrendBettor in my first year of publically releasing trends and tips on a weekly basis. After the weekend, the worst case scenario in terms of profit for the 2017 AFL season is +35.6 units, but let’s push for more than that with a great last Saturday in September! I would also like to thank @Oddy_Oddy_Oddy recruiting me halfway through the season – a relationship I can see sticking together for some time to come! Over the offseason I will be working hard on the database, and I look forward to being back to start things all off again in March 2018!

I will be back next year, that’s for sure!





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