by @thetrendbettor

Richmond v Collingwood – MCG

1st Preliminary Final, Friday Night, Line -16.5, Total 161.5

Richmond are 19-4 SU, 13-10 ATS, 12-11 Over in 2018

Collingwood are 17-7 SU, 14-10 ATS, 11-13 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

–        Richmond are 21-0 SU, 17-4 ATS in their last 21 matches at the MCG

–        Richmond are 15-0 SU, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 night matches at the MCG

o   10 by under 39.5 points

–        Under is 9-2 in Richmond’s last 11 night matches at the MCG

–        Under is 11-4 in Collingwood night matches since 2015

–        Richmond are 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS against Collingwood since 2016

o   Under is 3-2

–        Each of the 9 matches between these two teams have scored over 161.5 points since 2013

–        Richmond have won each of their last 5 matches at the MCG by 1-39

–        Collingwood are 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS as underdogs in 2018

o   1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in Melbourne

Comments:

Richmond have consistently beaten teams at the G by 1-39 of late, and although I don’t see Collingwood winning this game, I definitely believe they are good enough not to get blown out.

Recommended Bet:

2 units Richmond 1-39 at $2.1 with Ladbrokes