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AFL: Preliminary Final - GWS vs Western Bulldogs
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by @betdetective


We snagged a win with the Swans +9.5 last night and this bet truly never looked in doubt after the opening minutes of the match. The Swans midfield simply swarmed the mids of the Cats and despite Dangerfield and Selwood both getting 39 touches and the Cats winning the inside 50 count by 32 (THIRTY TWO!) they were never at the races.

I wonder how many of those inside 50’s were from wayward Dangerfield kicks that either got spoiled or intercepted? He’s clearly a very talented athlete but there are a handful of mids I rate higher than him as things stand with one being a key player in tonight’s Preliminary Final, Marcus Bontempelli. He averages over seven touches a match fewer than Dangerfield but his touches are so rarely wasted, unlike Dangerfield’s.




Onto today’s game and the early line of -14.5 about GWS has gone, and that’s no surprise with home advantage at least a three goal at Spotless Stadium. I went completely against what i’d advise anyone in the punting game and stayed off the -14.5 because i want to cheer the Dogs on. I’m not sure how many times i’ve done this but i can’t remember any! In hindsight I should have backed the minus and hoped for a decent middle, which I would have attained now with the current line at -22.5, which looks bang on the number.

The Dogs are no forlorn hope here despite GWS being worthy favourites. The Dogs clearly think they can beat anyone and why not? They’ve knocked off Hawthorn at the G by 23 points and West Coast on their home patch by more than twice that. One thing you can guarantee is they will match GWS’ intensity and this will be vital. They will also keep at them until the final kick.



One option for a punt in this game is to combine the offers from Ladbrokes and Sportsbet for a risk free wager, here’s how:

Back $50 at $2.0 GWS with Screenshot 2016-08-12 09.14.01

Back $50 at $3.05 Western Bulldogs with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13 (money back if beaten by 18 points or less)


Possible outcomes:

GWS by 19+: break even

GWS by 1-18: +$50

Western Bulldogs win: +$52.50




I’m also going to put up a couple of roughies in the ‘quarter by quarter’ market withScreenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

0.25 units on each of these

GWS, GWS, GWS, WB at $34

GWS, GWS, WB, WB at $31



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