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AFL: Round 1 wrap and Richmond vs Collingwood
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Round 1 saw five underdogs win from the nine opening week matches with the biggest shock according to Pinnacle’s closing odds being Port Adelaide’s win over the Swans in Sydney. Yes, we tipped Port for the wooden spoon last week! Hmmm.



We record each teams’ + or – for scoring shots and inside 50’s in our Results Database and the following teams did better stats wise than their results may have suggested:



  • Collingwood lost by 14 points to the Bulldogs but had 1 more scoring shot and 17 more i50’s

  • Sydney had 5 more i50’s in their heavy defeat to Port Adelaide

  • Gold Coast had 28 more i50’s and 3 more scoring shots in their narrow defeat to the Lions

  • Hawthorn had 3 more i50’s than Essendon

  • Freo had 8 more i50’s than Geelong despite losing by 8 goals



The Crows numbers suggest their win over GWS was very much deserved with 16 more scoring shots and 18 more inside 50’s.



All nine matches went OVER the total points line with second halves particularly good to overs backers. The average line was 182.6 and the average total was 206.1.


Onto round two then and tonight we see the Pies and the Tigers go at it at the MCG with the line hovering around the 5.5 mark in favour of the Pies having opened at 2.5.


Richmond looked good last week but Carlton put up little resistance while the Pies held their own against the Bulldogs where they actually ‘won’ the final three quarters by 6 points having gone in at the first break down by 14.


I couldn’t recommend a bet at the current line but for those looking for a bet the either team to win by 15 points or fewer in the tri bet market at $2.75 with Hills/Centrebet should give you a run for your money.


I do quite like the unders here though with my adjusted figure for nigh matches at the MCG of 177.4 (the average line over the last 3 seasons in these conditions has been 176.2) well under the current line of 189.5. The three MCG night matches in round 1 had lines of 169.5, 176.5 and 182.5 and the fact all nine games went over in week one will have added a few points to the line.


Back under 190.5 points at $1.90 with Screenshot 2014-05-21 12.49.05



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