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AFL: Round 1
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The AFL season is back upon us after a cracker of a 2018 that culminated in one of the best Grand Finals in memory.

 

This time around we’ll be trying to point you in the direction of some winners, sticking to the Oddy tried and tested method of generally looking for some value on underdogs, or certainly avoiding teams at long odds on in the match odds markets. 

 

We may dip our toes in the volatile waters of match and team totals from time to time but for the most part we’ll be concentrating on the match odds and handicap line markets, where most can get set for the amount they want even if they have to spread their bets around a bit. We will stake between 0.5 and 3 units per bet.

 

First we should state our prediction for 2019 at the outset. If nothing else it will be good for a laugh come September.

 

  1. Richmond

  2. Melbourne

  3. Collingwood

  4. Essendon

  5.  West Coast 

  6. GWS

  7. Geelong

  8. Adelaide

  9. Hawthorn

  10. Port Adelaide

  11. Brisbane

  12. North Melbourne

  13. Sydney

  14. St Kilda

  15. Western Bulldogs

  16. Fremantle

  17. Carlton

  18. Gold Coast

 

 

 

 

Round 1 bets:

The first match for the 2019 season comes on Thursday when Carlton host Richmond at the MCG. The Tigers have won the last seven straight vs the Blues and 8 of the last 10. In 2018 Richmond averaged 59 inside 50’s per game, bettered only be the Demons’ 59.8 while the Blues managed only 45.2 and there is no reason to think that the two teams won’t be occupying opposite ends of the ladder in 2019.

 

It’s always a bit tricky getting odds and lines early in the season but our line of -42 makes the -35.5 at Topsport worth a single unit at $1.90.

 

 

 

Our second bet comes the following day where we are siding with Geelong at the MCG against Collingwood. Geelong ranked 1st in least opponents points per game in 2018 and were the only team to limit teams to an average of fewer than 10 goals. If they do this on Friday I can see them frustrating the Pies in front of their rabid home fans at the MCG and coming out on top in a close one. 

1 unit Geelong at $2.44 on betfair (2.5% comm) and 1 unit +8.5 points at $1.9 with Topsport

 

 

 

 

 

 

On Saturday Hawthorn travel to Adelaide to play the Crows and they look overpriced to cause an upset. The Hawks have won their last three vs the Crows in Adelaide and Alastair Clarkson will have a gameplan and be right on top of how the Hawks plan to play the new rules to their best advantage. Our line is tentatively set at 12.5 so the 20.5 with Beteasy appeals.

1 unit Hawthorn to win at $3.60 on Betfair and 1 unit +20.5 at $1.90 with Beteasy

 

 

 

 

 

Our final bet comes in the final match of the round so we’ll be hoping that this rounds off a great start…we’ll see. North Melbourne go to Perth to face the Fremantle Dockers and they look like they’ve been underrated at 1.5 point favourites as we make the line more like a single goal. We’ll ignore the handicap line and back North straight up.

1.5 units North Melbourne at $1.98 on Betfair

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