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AFL: Round 15 Trends and Tips
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by @thetrendbettor

Richmond $1.62 v Sydney $2.46 – Etihad Stadium

Thursday Night, Line +10.5, Total 158.5

Richmond are 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 Over in 2018

Sydney are 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS, 6-7 Over in 2018



Key Trends:

  • Richmond are 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS against the Swans since 2014

    • 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS in Melbourne

  • Richmond are 3-4 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2016

  • Sydney are 13-2 SU, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 away matches

    • 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in 2018

  • Sydney are 14-1 SU, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 matches at Etihad Stadium

  • Favourites are 14-0 SU, 11-3 ATS in the last 14 matches at Etihad Stadium



Wow! What a game we have here to kick off round 15! Top of the ladder, first versus second, premiership favourites versus second favourite – what could possibly dampen this match? Oh there is possibly one thing. Playing this match at Etihad Stadium probably isn’t the greatest idea the leagues come up with in recent years, but this should be a corker nonetheless.

I’d have absolutely no hesitation backing the Tigers if this were at the G, as they’re one of the league’s safest bet on home soil, but with this being played at Etihad, I’d have to say that this favours Sydney massively as they have lost only once in their last 15 matches there… and they win quite comfortably too. Take the points.

Recommended Bet: 2u Sydney +10.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)





Western Bulldogs $5.25 v Geelong $1.20 – Etihad Stadium

Friday Night, Line +32.5, Total 157.5

Western Bulldogs are 4-9 SU, 4-9 ATS, 4-9 Over in 2018

Geelong are 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS, 3-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Western Bulldogs are 0-10 SU, 5-5 ATS against Geelong since 2010

    • 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS at Etihad Stadium

  • Geelong’s second half % in 2018 is 126.5%

  • Western Bulldogs second half % in 2018 is 61.9%

  • Geelong are 8-3-1 SU, 7-5 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2015

  • Western Bulldogs are 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

  • Lachie Hunter has racked up 29+ disposals in 4 of his last 5 matches at Etihad Stadium

  • Tom Hawkins has kicked 3+ goals in each of his last 6 matches


Geelong should have no problems winning this one, but I think the bookies have got the line just about right in this one, so I’m backing the Cats to put the Dogs to the sword in the second half. The Dogs have put up a fight early in matches this season, but tend to fade away, I expect them to do the same against a side that should know how important percentage could be come September.

Recommended Bet: 1u Geelong -16.5 2ndHalf @ $1.89 (Bet365)





Carlton $6.70 v Port Adelaide $1.14 – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line +37.5, Total 153.5 – Shower or two

Carlton are 1-12 SU, 6-7 ATS, 5-8 Over in 2018

Port Adelaide are 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS, 3-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Carlton are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches against Port Adelaide

    • Home teams are 4-0 SU & ATS

  • Carlton are 10-14-1 SU, 21-4 ATS in their last 25 day/twilight matches at the MCG since 2014

  • Port Adelaide are 9-7 SU & ATS in interstate matches since 2017

    • 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS against Victorian sides

  • Port Adelaide are 6-8 SU, 5-9 ATS as favourites in Victoria under Ken Hinkley


Port Adelaide are marching at the moment, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, and they should seemingly have no troubles against the bottom of the ladder Carlton, but not much would have to go wrong for Port to slip up in this game in my opinion. Carlton arguably play their best footy in day matches at the G (so the trends tell us), one of their greatest players in the modern era in Kade Simpson is playing his 300th, and they are expecting a shower or two in a pretty horrible day weatherwise. I can absolutely see Carlton making Port earn this one.

Recommended Bet: 2u Carlton +37.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)




Adelaide $1.52 v West Coast Eagles $2.80 – Adelaide Oval

Saturday Twilight, Line -13.5, Total 166.5

Adelaide are 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS, 4-9 Over in 2018

West Coast are 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS, 5-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Adelaide are 2-3 SU & ATS against West Coast since 2015

  • West Coast are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS at Adelaide Oval under Adam Simpson

    • 2-1 SU & ATS against Adelaide

  • West Coast are 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS in interstate matches in 2018

    • Under is 4-0 in the last 4

  • Adelaide are 20-6 SU, 18-8 ATS as true home favourites under Don Pyke


Although Adelaide regained a few players, namely Rory Sloane and Rory Laird, both teams have some key names missing. There are enough players missing for me to want to stay away from this one.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Under 166.5 @ $1.90 (Bet365)




GWS Giants $1.78 v Hawthorn $2.25 – Spotless Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -4.5, Total 157.5

GWS Giants are 7-5-1 SU, 4-9 ATS, 6-7 Over in 2018

Hawthorn are 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS, 4-9 Over in 2018


Key Trends:

  • GWS are 2-0-1 SU, 2-1 ATS against Hawthorn since 2015

    • 2-0 SU & ATS at Spotless Stadium

  • Hawthorn are 6-5 SU & ATS in away interstate matches since 2016

    • 3-2 SU & ATS as underdogs

  • Under is 5-0 in Hawthorn’s last 5 away interstate matches as underdogs

  • Under is 10-0 in Hawthorn’s last 10 interstate matches at night

  • GWS are 10-7 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 matches at Spotless Stadium


Under has been a constant winner in Hawthorn away matches interstate, so look to play that again, especially with Jeremy Cameron out and Hawthorn struggling to kick a high score as of late.

Recommended Bet: 2u Under 158.5 @ $1.88 (Crownbet)






Gold Coast Suns $7.50 v Collingwood $1.14 – Metricon Stadium

Saturday Night, Line +42.5, Total 155.5

Gold Coast are 3-10 SU, 6-7 ATS, 3-10 Over in 2018

Collingwood are 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 6-7 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Collingwood are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 matches against Gold Coast

  • Over is 5-2 in all of the Gold Coast v Collingwood matches

  • Taylor Adams has had 26+ disposals in 3 of his last 4 matches

  • Collingwood are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 interstate matches as favourites

Comments: I really like two bets in this game. I was initially leaning towards playing the over 155.5, but then I remembered that the Suns have scored a whopping combined total of 2 last quarter goals in their last 5 matches, so I thought that may ruin the bet, so I’ve decided to go for the over at half time.

After a slow start to the season, Tay Adams has become super consistent without lighting the world on fire in the last few weeks – racking up 26, 28, 27, and 24 touches in his last 4 matches, but with Adam Treloar out for at least a couple of months, expect Adams to get more of the ball. Gold Coast have the lease disposals in the league, which means Collingwood should have a lot of the footy.

Recommended Bets:

  • 1.5u Over 75.5 Total Points Scored 1stHalf @ $1.88 (Bet365)

  • 1.5u Taylor Adams over 25.5 disposals @ $1.86 (Bet365)





Melbourne $1.14 v St Kilda $7 – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line -39.5, Total 174.5

Melbourne are 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 ATS in 2018

St Kilda are 2-10-1 SU, 4-9 ATS, 5-8 ATS in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Melbourne are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 matches against St Kilda

  • Melbourne are 8-10 SU, 4-14 ATS at the MCG under Simon Goodwin

    • 7-7 SU, 3-11 ATS as favourites

      • Only one win was by 40+

    • St Kilda are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS at the MCG under Alan Richardson

    • St Kilda are 1-15 SU, 6-10 ATS in their last 16 matches as underdogs

Comments: Melbourne will be looking to bounce back after back to back losses against a side that won their first match in practically 3 months before they had the bye – St Kilda – but the Dees have let punters down against the line on their home deck, so I’m not expecting this to be a cake walk.

Recommended Bet: 1u Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.50 (Sportsbet)




Essendon $2.00 v North Melbourne $1.95 – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line -1.5, Total 161.5

Essendon are 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS, 2-12 Over in 2018

North Melbourne are 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS, 3-10 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Essendon are 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS against North Melbourne since 2015

  • Essendon are 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS at Etihad Stadium since 2017

    • 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS against Victorian sides

  • North Melbourne are 4-2 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2018

    • Under is 5-1

    • 3-1 SU & ATS against Victorian sides

  • Essendon are 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS the week after playing interstate

  • Ben Cunnington has collected over 25 disposals in 10 of his last 12 matches at Etihad Stadium

Comments: Tough game to pick this one – Essendon have seemingly revived their season in the last few weeks, and they come up against a young team that are ticking over the wins nicely in North Melbourne. A real flip of the coin game this one, so I’m staying away from picking a winner with any conviction.

Ben Cunnington loves playing at Etihad Stadium and has continuously racked up over 25 possessions under the roof, so I’ll back the contested bull to do so again against a team that is ranked 12th in the league in contested possessions.

Recommended Bet: 3u Ben Cunnington o25.5 disposals @ $2 (Bet365)

Fremantle $1.33 v Brisbane Lions $3.80 – Optus Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line -22.5, Total 167.5

Fremantle are 6-7 SU, 8-5 ATS, 3-10 Over in 2018

Brisbane are 1-12 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

  • Fremantle are 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS against Brisbane under Ross Lyon

    • 4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS in Perth

      • average winning margin of 47

    • Fremantle are 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS at Optus Stadium

    • Brisbane are 1-15 SU, 11-5 ATS in interstate matches under Chris Fagan

    • Fremantle are 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS as favourites in Perth


Brisbane have shown enough to say that this game would be a flip of the coin if this were at the Gabba, but Fremantle are a completely different team at home than what they are away. The Dockers have won quite comfortably when playing as home favourites, so the they should do it pretty easily on their home ground.

Recommended Bet: 1u Fremantle -21.5 @ $1.91 Crownbet)

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