We are on to Round 16 and back to a full set of fixtures after two bye rounds.
Thursday night sees a resurgent Port Adelaide (i’m still clinging to the $101 Flag voucher despite them being $251 now) welcome reigning champs Hawthorn to the Adelaide Oval and the bookies have the line as low as -5.5 in favour of the team in brown and yellow.
Hawthorn have won 18 and lost 7 of their interstate games since 2014, covering 13 times.
They are 4/1 S/U and 4/1 ATS as under 10 point favourites I/S in that time.
Port have a good record at home as one might expect winning 21 and losing 12 there since 2014, covering 17 times and failing to cover 16 times.
Hawthorn are top of a congested ladder with Port 8 points outside the eight in ninth place.
It will be a tough match for the champs but i make the line closer to two goals than one so the -5.5 is a bet for me.
Our next bet is in the GWS vs Collingwood match at Spotless Stadium at lunchtime on Saturday.
GWS are beasts at home, winning and covering in each of their five matches at Spotless in 2016 with an average winning margin of 59 points. Included in those wins was a 42 point win over Sydney and a 75 point win over the Hawks. They started as underdogs in both games.
Collingwood have been travelling OK ATS when interstate since 2015, covering in 6 of their 8 games but GWS should have way too much firepower for the Pies in this one.