Hey punters! Welcome to the TrendBettor’s Round 16 preview. I’ll be revealing trends and statistics that hopefully help you select a few winners every weekend. This weekend we have an intriguing round of footy as there are six matches where the two teams playing are separated by a maximum of five positions from each other on the ladder. In a season that has delivered so many twists and turns, the fact that we have 6 matches where the line is set to under 15.5 shows just how even this league is. Anyway, lets get stuck into it!
League stats of the week:
The away team have been underdogs 75 times this season, covering the line on 50 occasions (67%). “Away/Under” (Line / Total Points Double) has hit 33 times (44%). If you had put $25 on Away/Under for every match that the home team is favourite, you would have over $1150 profit.
* It is important to note that SU means “Straight Up”, or simply who won the game
ATS = Against the Spread, or who covered the line.
3 units: Adelaide 1-39 ($2.10)
1 unit: Hawks/GWS – either team by under 24.5 ($1.83)
3 units: Pies/Bombers – either team by under 24.5 ($1.80)
1 units: Gold Coast +45.5 ($1.95)
1 unit: Geelong -31.5 ($1.93)
4 units: Richmond -5 ($1.83)
1 units: North/Freo – either team by under 24.5 ($1.83)
1 unit: Melb/Carl under 161.5 points ($1.90)
2 units: WCE/Port – either team by under 15.5 ($2.63)
Adelaide v Western Bulldogs – Adelaide Oval
Line: -24.5 Total Points O/U: 168.5
Crows are 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 6-8 Over
Bulldogs are 7-7 SU, 4-10 ATS, 5-9 Over
Crows are 1-2 SU & ATS v the Western Bulldogs since 2015
Have never played each other at Adelaide Oval
Crows are 6-2 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval in 2017
All Adelaide matches at Adelaide Oval v interstate sides have resulted in Home/Over (5 times) or Away/Under (2 times)
Under is 7-1 in the last 8 matches at Adelaide Oval
5-1 in the last 6 night matches
Bulldogs are 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS interstate in 2017
0-5 SU, 3-2 ATS away from Melbourne in 2017
Played Geelong at Simonds
Under is 7-1 in the last 8 Bulldogs matches played interstate
I expect the Crows to win by 4 goals on Friday Night Footy, with the Bulldogs’ torrid away form to continue. That being said, I don’t think the Crows blow it out as this is a match with huge implications for the defending Premiers, and have only lost by over 4 goals twice this season. I also liked under 173.5 total points on Thursday morning after the total o/u grew from 168.5, but has since dropped back to its original total. I still believe it will be under 168.5 as it will be played in the wet, but the value has diminished somewhat. Final word, Crows by 23 points.
Recommended Bet:3 units Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.16 with
Hawthorn v GWS Giants – Launceston
Line: +13.5 Total Points O/U 180.5
Hawks are 6-8 SU, 5-9 ATS, 3-11 Over
GWS are 10-3-1 SU, 6-8 Over, 6-8 Over
Hawks are 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS v the Giants, all time.
1-0 SU, 0-1 in Tasmania
Home side is 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS between these two sides
Hawks are 0-2 SU & ATS in their last two v GWS
Average total points in the 5 meetings is 210.
Under is 8-3 in the last 11 matches in Launceston.
Hawks are 5-1 SU, 0-6 ATS in the last 6 matches in Launceston.
GWS are 3-3 SU & ATS outside of NSW/ACT in 2017
Tough game to call this one, especially with Hawthorn ranked 18th on the AFL Line Predictability Index. The Hawks deviate from the pre-game line by an average of 42.2 points. The Hawks are starting to click and have won 3 of their last 4 matches, making it hard to bet against them, but we all know how good the Giants are, especially when they’re clicking. I see very little value in the line as I think the bookies have it right with the 2 and a bit goal advantage to the Giants. I’m expecting a close game here, Giants by 8 points.
Recommended Bet:Either team by under 24.5 points @ $1.83 with
Collingwood v Essendon – MCG
Line: +1.5 Total O/U: 182.5
Pies are 5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 Over
Bombers are 6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 Over
Pies are 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS v the Bombers under Nathan Buckley
Pies are 3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS at the MCG in 2017
Under is 4-2
Bombers are 3-2 SU & ATS at the MCG in 2017
11 of 14 Collingwood matches have been decided by 24 points or under.
This is another match that I expect to go down to the wire. Two teams that have been fairly disappointing this season, especially in the last month, with Collingwood losing their last three matches whilst the Bombers have won just one in the past five matches. 11th v 15th are usually matches with very little on the line this late in the season, but you can guarantee both teams will be desperate for a win against their rival. I’m expecting a good game of footy this Saturday arvo at the G, and I also expect it to be close. Pies by 4
Recommended Bet:3 units Either team by under 24.5 points @ $1.80with
Sydney v Gold Coast – SCG
Line: -45.5 Total O/U: 176.5
Swans are 7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS, 5-9 Over
Suns are 6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 Over
Swans are 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS v the Suns, all time
Over is 5-2
2-0 SU & ATS at the SCG
Suns are 2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS interstate in 2017.
Suns are 6-31-1 SU, 15-23 ATS without Gary Ablett
Swans are 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS at the SCG in 2017.
Under is 5-2
Under is 15-7 in the last 22 matches at the SCG
Gold Coast have covered 4 of their last 5 matches, and are playing some okay footy. They come up against the Swans who have turned their season around by winning 6 of their last 8 matches after starting 0-6. The Sydney Swans statically have the worst home ground advantage in the league in the last 4 seasons, and actually have a better winning % away from home than they do at home. I believe Gold Coast cover the 45.5 points due to the fact that it is hard to play good footy consistently for a long period of time, and that is what Sydney have done in the last couple of months. I do think the Swans will win, but it wont be a belting like some people are suggesting. Swans by 28
The Cats are 8-1 SU, 6-2 ATS v the Lions under Chris Scott
3-1 SU & ATS at the Gabba
The Lions are 1-5 SU & ATS at the Gabba this year.
The Cats are 5-3 SU & ATS in their last 8 interstate matches
Under is 9-2 in the last 11 interstate matches for Geelong.
This is a danger game for the Cats and almost everybody is giving the Lions at least a small chance to win this. Is the danger warranted, or is it simply an overreaction after the Lions’ comeback win over the Bombers last week? The Lions have been a far better team away from home, only winning and covering once out of six matches at the Gabba. Although I give them a chance, I think the Cats will do it easy here. Cats by 46
Saints are 6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS at Etihad Stadium in 2017
Tigers are 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS at Etihad Stadium in their last 8 matches at Etihad Stadium
Teams are 7-5 SU, 3-9 ATS the week after travelling to Domain Stadium in 2017 (St Kilda)
Here is a match that could potentially have huge finals implications, as the Tigers are looking for a win to stay in the top 4, whilst the Saints are looking to continue their 3 win streak. The Tigers are playing some great footy, covering the most line in the league with 11 out of 14. The Saints on the other hand, although they are 8th on the ladder, I’m not buying their form. Yes, they have won 3 matches in a row, but beating North, Gold Coast, and Freo hasn’t sold me that the Saints are better than 10 other teams in this league. If they win this one, ill start to believe, but I think the Tigers will get the choccies here. Tigers by 29
Brad Scott is 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS v Ross Lyon (STK/Fremantle)
North are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS v Fremantle since 2012
North are 2-1 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium
North are 2-7 SU, 3-6 at Etihad Stadium in 2017
North are 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 matches v interstate teams at Etihad Stadium
Fremantle have lost their last 11 matches without Aaron Sandilands
Freo are 0-4 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches at Etihad Stadium
Unless you’re a supporter of either of these two clubs, it’s hard to find a reason to get excited over this match, as North having a 4 game losing streak and Freo on a 5 game losing streak. Freo have come very close to winning both of their last two matches, but stumbled come the final hurdle against the Cats and the Saints. If their season wasn’t already finished, the injury of Sandilands probably put the nail in the coffin as they haven’t won without the 7 foot giant in their last 11 attempts. On the other hand, North aren’t playing well either, displaying arguably their worse effort for the season last weekend against the Suns. Hard to pick a winner here, but I’m going with North by 7 points.
Recommended Bet:Either team by under 24.5 @ $1.83 with
Carlton v Melbourne – MCG
Line: +7.5 Total O/U: 161.5
Dees are 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS v the Blues since 2014
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between the two sides
Dees are 2-5 SU, 0-7 ATS at the MCG in 2017
Blues are 10-6-1 SU, 20-7 ATS in their last 27 matches at the MCG
Under is 14-3 in the last 17 matches where Melbourne were the “away” side at the MCG
This game should be an easy game to pick when you consider that its 6th on the ladder up against 16th. But with Melbourne’s injury list growing by the week, we saw a pretty ordinary line up against the Swans last week. Even though the Dees welcome back Garlett and Hogan with open arms, their midfield is heavily depleted with Jones, Viney, Tyson missing, as well as Salem and Watts. The Blues will be coming into this game thinking that this game is very winnable, especially considering that they narrowly lost to the Crows last weekend at the G – a ground they have played very well on in recent years. It’ll be a close game, but if the Dees are serious about playing in September, this is simply a must-win game. Dees by 9
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two sides
The biggest margin by either side in the last 5 meetings between these two sides is 14
Eagles are 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS at Domain Stadium in 2017
The last 4 Eagles home matches have all been decided by under 14 points.
Port are 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS away from Adelaide Oval in 2017
Port are 2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS at Domain Stadium in last 9 matches
This is probably match of the round in the grand scheme of things, but this “8-point-game” hasn’t been talked about a lot, probably simply due to the fact that neither of these teams are from Victoria. A win for either team will put them back into heavy top 4 contention, a loss will put pressure and doubts whether or not they are worthy of playing finals. To make the 8, the eagles simply just need to win at home as their form away from home (apart from knocking off the Dogs last week), has been very ordinary. Whereas for Port, this would be a big scalp as this would be their first win against a current top 8 side in 2017. I’m expecting another nail biter here, Eagles by 3.
Recommended Bet:2 units Either team by under 15.5 Points @ $2.63 with