by @thetrendbettor

 

 

Adelaide v Geelong – Adelaide Oval

Thursday Night, Line +2.5, Total 158.5

Adelaide are 7-8 SU, 6-9 ATS, 5-10 Over in 2018

Geelong are 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS, 4-11 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Adelaide are 2-3 SU & ATS in their last 5 matches against Geelong

  • 2-1 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • Under is 4-1

• Adelaide are 6-1 SU & ATS in their last 7 matches at Adelaide Oval as underdogs

• Under is 21-7 in all Thursday/Friday Night matches at Adelaide Oval

• Under is 14-4 in the last 18 Geelong matches played interstate

  • 9-3 in night matches

• Geelong are 4-3 SU & ATS at Adelaide Oval

  • Under is 5-1

• Joel Selwood has had 34+ disposals in 5 of his last 7 matches against Adelaide, averaging 31.6 disposals in this span.

 

Comments: The under seems to be the obvious play in this game as all of the numbers lean that way, but this is the equal third lowest pre-game total points scored number in the ground’s history, something that is deterring me quite a lot. If the number was 165-170, I wouldn’t hesitate playing the under, but not with a total this low.

Joel Selwood racked up the footy on a consistent basis when playing the Crows, so take the added juice on his original opening number.

Recommended Bet: 1u Joel Selwood o28.5 disposals @ $2.15 (Bet365)

 

 

 

 

 

St Kilda v Carlton – Etihad Stadium

Friday Night, Line -20.5, Total 167.5

St Kilda are 3-11-1 SU, 6-9 ATS, 6-9 Over in 2018

Carlton are 1-14 SU, 7-8 ATS, 7-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• St Kilda are 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS against Carlton since 2016

• St Kilda are 12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS as favourites the week after a loss since 2014

• Carlton are 0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Friday night matches

• St Kilda are 2-4 SU & ATS in their last 6 Friday night matches

• St Kilda are 17-3 SU, 10-10 ATS as favourites under Alan Richardson

• Patrick Cripps has recorded 30+ disposals in 3 of his 4 matches against St Kilda

Comments:

What an uninspiring Friday night matchup we have here – something that is said far too often for my liking – with the two involved teams having a 4-25-1 combined record. This match is so uninspiring, that I’m staying away from it.

Unofficial Recommended Bet: St Kilda -21.5 & Cripps 30+ disposals @ $3.60 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

Hawthorn v Brisbane – Launceston

Saturday Afternoon, Line -27.5, Total 179.5

Hawthorn are 9-6 SU, 9-6 ATS, 6-9 Over in 2018

Brisbane are 3-12 SU, 8-7 ATS, 8-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

• Hawthorn are 4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 matches against Brisbane

  • 3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS in Launceston since 2014

  • Average total points in Launceston = 204.7

• Hawthorn are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS against the Lions in Launceston

  • Lowest winning margin = 55.5

• Over in 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between Hawthorn and Brisbane

• Average total points scored in the last 3 Brisbane road matches is 203.7

 

Comments: The conditions seem to be perfect in Tasmania, so there’s no reason as to why these two teams won’t play out a high scoring game once again.

 

Recommended Bet: 1u Over 178.5 Total Points Scored @ $1.90 (Bet365 / Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – MCG

Saturday Twilight, Line -41.5, Total 174.5

Melbourne are 9-6 SU, 9-6 ATS, 8-7 Over in 2018

Western Bulldogs are 5-10 SU, 5-10 ATS, 6-9 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

• Melbourne are 2-0 SU & ATS against the Western Bulldogs under Simon Goodwin

  • Average winning margin = 53

  • Both games at Etihad Stadium

  • Melbourne are 8-11 SU, 4-15 ATS at the MCG under Simon Goodwin

    • 7-8 SU, 3-12 ATS as favourites

  • Western Bulldogs are 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS at the MCG under Luke Beveridge

Comments: The Bulldogs have played the MCG pretty well in recent years, and have covered the line more times in their 9 matches at the ground under Luke Beveridge than Melbourne have in their 19 games under Simon Goodwin.

 

Recommended Bet: 2u Western Bulldogs +42.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

Gold Coast v Essendon – Metricon Stadium

Saturday Night, Line -28.5, Total 156.5

Gold Coast are 3-12 SU, 7-8 ATS, 4-11 Over in 2018

Essendon are 7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS, 4-11 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

• Essendon are 2-0 SU & ATS against Gold Coast under John Worsfold

• Essendon are 13-2 SU, 8-7 ATS in their last 15 matches as favourites in matches played interstate

• Under is 6-2 in Essendon matches played in night matches interstate under John Worsfold

  • 2-0 as favourites

• Essendon’s 4^th quarter % is 102.23% in 2018

• Gold Coast’s 4^th quarter % is 39.95% in 2018

• Gold Coast are 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS at Metricon Stadium in 2018

 

 

Comments: Gold Coast have covered two of the 3 lines when playing at Metricon Stadium in 2018, but they have been absolutely deplorable in 4^th quarters. Essendon know that if they are any chance to make the finals, they will need to improve their % quite significantly over the remainder of the season, so don’t expect them to take the foot off the pedal no matter what the score is at 3 quarter time.

 

Recommended Bet: 2u Essendon -7.5 4Q @ $1.89 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

 

GWS Giants v Richmond – Spotless Stadium

Saturday Night, Line 10.5, Total 158.5

GWS are 8-6-1 SU, 6-9 ATS, 7-8 Over in 2018

Richmond are 12-3 SU, 9-6 ATS, 8-7 Over in 2018

 

Key Trends:

• Richmond are 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS in their last 6 matches against GWS

  • Home team is 6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS

  • Under is 5-1

• Richmond are 0-3 SU & ATS in interstate matches in 2018

• Richmond are 7-2 SU & ATS in their last 9 interstate matches as favourites

• GWS are 10-3-1 SU, 3-11 ATS at Spotless Stadium since 2017

• GWS are 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS as favourites at Spotless Stadium since 2015

• Richmond are 11-4 SU in 1^st quarters with 143% in 2018

• GWS Giants are 8-7 SU in 1^st quarter with 101% in 2018

• Richmond are 12-3 SU in 4^th quarters with 185% in 2018

• GWS Giants are 8-7 SU in 4^th quarters with 99% in 2018

 

Comments: Richmond haven’t been able to win outside the state of Victoria in 2018, but I find it difficult to see how GWS are going to post a winning score without Jeremy Cameron or Jonathon Patton in their line-up. I expect Richmond to lead at quarter time, and then no matter what the score is at 3 quarter time, they’ll wear down the opposition.

 

Recommended Bets:

• 1u Richmond wire to wire @ $2.45 (Bet365)

• 1u Richmond -3.5 4Q @ 1.90 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

Collingwood v West Coast – MCG

Sunday Afternoon, Line -11.5, Total 165.5

Collingwood are 11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS, 7-8 Over in 2018

West Coast are 12-3 SU, 8-7 ATS, 6-9 Over in 2018

 

 

Key Trends:

• Collingwood are 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS against West Coast since 2014

  • Home team is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS

  • Collingwood are 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS in Melbourne

    • All matches have been decided by 31 points or less

  • Under is 8-1 in the last 9 Collingwood home matches against West Coast

  • Collingwood are 9-0 SU, 6-4 ATS as favourites in 2018

  • 7 of the last 8 West Coast matches as underdogs in Victoria have been decided by 20 points or less

    • 6 have been decided by 8 points or less

 

Comments: What a tasty treat we have here on Sunday afternoon, 2^nd verses 3^rd, and a game that will have massive top 4 implications. These two have had close games when they have played in Melbourne, and with these two so evenly tied on the ladder, I expect more of the same.

Recommended Bet: 2u Either team by under 24.5 points @ $1.80 (Sportsbet)

 

 

 

North Melbourne v Sydney – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Afternoon, Line +2.5, Total 162.5

North Melbourne are 9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS, 4-11 Over in 2018

Sydney are 10-5 SU, 7-8 ATS, 7-8 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• North Melbourne are 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS against Sydney since 2016

• Sydney are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium since 2010

• Sydney are 14-2 SU, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 matches at Etihad Stadium

• North Melbourne are 3-6 SU, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 matches against interstate sides at Etihad Stadium

• Sydney are 4-1 SU & ATS the week after a loss in 2018

 

Comments: Sydney have an extraordinary record in the last few years at Etihad Stadium, and this team rarely loses two weeks in a row. Expect Sydney to bounce back in this one.

Recommended Bet: 2u Sydney win $1.85 (Multiple Bookies)

 

 

 

Fremantle v Port Adelaide – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +26.5, Total 153.5

Fremantle are 6-9 SU, 8-7 ATS, 4-11 Over in 2018

Port Adelaide are 11-4 SU, 7-8 ATS, 4-11 Over in 2018

Key Trends:

• Fremantle are 2-3 SU & ATS against Port Adelaide since 2015

  • Home teams are 5-0 SU & ATS

• Fremantle are 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS at Optus Stadium in 2018

• Fremantle are 5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS as underdogs in WA against non-WA teams since 2016

• Port Adelaide ate 3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS as true road dogs in 2018

• Port Adelaide are 3-4 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Perth

Comments: The trends suggest that Fremantle are the team to back here, but I find it nearly impossible to back a team in any capacity that have managed to have just 32 scoring shots compared to their opponents’ 66 in the last two weeks. Stay away from this one.

 

Unofficial Recommended Bet: Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.05 (Bet365)