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AFL: Round 18 - Preview and Tips
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by @betdetective

 

 

Our Round 18 AFL Tips got off to a flyer last night with North seeing off the Pies in no uncertain fashion to get our 1.5 unit bet up. I’m slightly annoyed i didn’t put North up to win by a good margin as I backed them -32.5 at 4/1 which would have been a good addition to the Oddy ledger. 

 

First up on Saturday we have Sydney vs Carlton at the SCG and the line has moved from -55.5 to -46.5. We know the Swans are dominant at the ground and have been just that in 2016 winning 5 and losing two there, covering the line in each of the wins. The most they’ve had to give up there is 26.5 points, however. 

 

The Blues weren’t too bad last week against West Coast, losing by seven points, and they could put up a bit more of a fight than the line suggests.

 

An angle I like here is the unders. The line is set at 165.5 and there have been seven games at the SCG in 2016 with six going under. Only one of the 14 teams involved went over 100 points – Sydney in R1 against the Pies. 

 

The Blues average 71 points this year and 66 away from Etihad.

 

1 unit under 165.5 at $1.98 with Screenshot 2016-05-17 10.04.53

 

 

Next up is Gold Coast vs Freo and the early value on the Dockers has now gone making this a no bet affair. 

 

 

West Coast at Subiaco/Domain? They are 8/1 S/U and 8/1 ATS this term and 19/4 ATS at the ground since the start of 2015. We don’t need to delve any deeper than that in a quest for a bet against the Dees. 

 

1 unit West Coast -34.5 at $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-06-06 12.59.13

 

 

The Bulldogs and the Saints are next up at their shared home ground of EmptyHead Stadium and both teams play the ground well. 

 

The Bulldogs just keep on producing match winning efforts and have now won six in seven. They have a particularly solid record as favourites, covering in eight of the ten fixtures. 

 

The Saints have won their last six at the ground, covering in five of them. These two sides met at Etihad in round 2 with the Bulldogs coming out 57 point winners. 

 

The Saints’ excellent record at the venue makes me a little nervous but I still like the Bulldogs to win this quite comfortably.

 

1 unit Western Bulldogs -20.5 at $1.93 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

 

 

Next up is the game of the round: Geelong vs Adelaide at Simonds Stadium on Saturday night.

 

Geelong are always formidable at home but they have been inconsistent in 2016. They destroyed the Bulldogs in round 13 but then lost to both the Saints and the Swans before carving out a scratchy with last week over the Dockers in Perth. 

 

Adelaide on the other hand continue to impress (he says clinging to his $14 futures flag bet like some sort of desperado). They’ve covered in 11 of their 16 games and in six of their eight away from the Adelaide Oval.  Their wins away from SA were over Melbourne, Richmond, Gold Coast, West Coast and Carlton, however, so the Eagles apart it’s easy to pick holes in their away form.

 

I make this a no bet match pre game but will look to get involved in-play. If you have a Marathon account you should look at their in-play odds on AFL matches. It’s hard to get a bet on as they change the lines every few seconds but some of the value is outstanding. I’ve been getting 12 point middles without trying too hard in 3/4 of games. Bet in units of no more than $100 and you should avoid too harsher limits. I generally look to back the team that goes behind – stats permitting – and then get out when the line returns to close to SP. The SP is key when trading in play because the line has a tendency to return to it, or very close to it. 

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