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AFL: Round 19 Preview and Tips
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by @betdetective



We were profitable last week with our two unit bet on North to beat Collingwood making the difference.


Friday night sees the Cats and the Dogs go at it like, well, Cats and Dogs,  and they are coming off vastly different experiences in the last round.


Geelong beat Adelaide by 30 points in a game where the key forwards made the difference. Tom Hawkins and Dan Menzel kicked four a piece while Eddie Betts only weighed in with one and Taylor Walker went scoreless. Josh Jenkins kicked three to keep the margin down to five goals. Taylor Walker is out with an ankle injury this week and it’s possible he’s been carrying a knock for a while because his form has been poor. 


The Doggies on the other hand got beaten by St Kilda and all had a good cry over Mitch Wallace’s injury, or his blood curdling screaming to be – probably – more accurate. It was a horrible injury for sure and i’ve seen breaks similar to that in soccer where the player never kicked a ball again. I don’t recall mass crying though. If you’re really curious/weird/blood thirsty google David Busst injury. It ain’t pretty.  


So, Cats on a high against the discombobulated Dogs at the Cattery should only mean one thing shouldn’t it? Let’s have a look at the numbers first.


The Cats at home:

  • Since 2014 they are 40/21/1 S/U and 28/34 ATS

The Cats at home at night:

  • Since 2014 they are 24/10/1 S/U and 18/17 ATS

The Cats as 0-30 point favs:

  • Since 2014 they are 21/8/1 and 14/16 ATS


So, not hugely impressive. 


I should disclose that i took Sportsbet’s -15.5 last Sunday and hedged with 365’s +26.5 on Wednesday so have a decent book on the match. I definitely lean towards the Cats at the current line of -23.5 but can’t recommend a line bet unless it gets to -19.5.


We can, however, look to Ladbrokes consistently excellent promos for a value punt or two.


They bet $2.40 for the Cats to win by 1-39 which looks very fair with the next best odds set at $2.15 and we can also see the value of a small tickle at their offer of Tom Hawkins for the opening goal at $11. Take the max of $25 on each. 

Screenshot 2014-05-27 08.55.43




GWS play Richmond on Saturday and you have to wonder how long the Tiges will remain motivated with their season effectively over. Their second half performance last week against the Hawks in round 18 when they lost the half by 10 goals suggested that they’ve had enough for the year. 


GWS are 6/3 ATS and 8/1 S/U since 2015 as 20+ point favourite while the Tigers record in day matches is very poor: 2/11 ATS in day games since 2015.


The line is on the cusp of being too big but the young guns of the Giants will show no mercy.


1 unit GWS -40.5 at $1.91 with Screenshot 2015-02-28 15.16.54




Next up on Saturday comes Hawthorn vs Carlton at Aurora Stadium. The Hawks are undefeated in 11 games at the venue since the start of 2014, winning those 11 by an average margin of 49.5 points. 


It’s tempting to just go with Hawks at the minus but instead we’ll go a little left field. 


The Hawks, despite their 11 for 11 record at the ground have lost four of the opening quarters so they could take a while to find their stride.


0.5 units Carlton to win Q1 at $4.25 with Screenshot 2014-05-03 13.10.10

1 unit Carlton +11.5 Q1 at $1.89 with Screenshot 2014-05-09 12.32.15




West Coast travel East to the MCG where they face Collingwood. The Eagles keep on winning but rarely look impressive while the Pies are inconsistent but seemingly improving. Neither team’s relative stats make much appeal but the total points market could give us a bit of value.


West Coast since 2014 when playing away from home have gone 6/19 to the under and 2/5 this year. The Pies are 5/6 over/under at the MCG in 2016.


1 unit under 178.5 at $1.88 with Screenshot 2014-05-27 08.55.43

Brisbane vs Port Adelaide has no bet written all over it with Brisbane just awful and Port’s motivation in serious question. 





Next up we have North Melbourne vs St Kilda at their shared home of Etihad Stadium and it is the Saints’ record that is more impressive. They have now won 5 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 10 games and at Etihad have gone 8/3 S/U & ATS in 2016.


North will be a tough proposition but schadenfreude fans will enjoy cheering on our bet on  little Boomer losing in his millionth game.


1 unit St Kilda +12.5 at $1.92 with Screenshot 2014-05-09 12.32.15


That’s it for us in round 19 with no bets in the Dees vs Gold Coast and Freo vs Sydney games.






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