We had a good start to AFL 2019 last week with four wins from six bets and +3.3 units.
Round two brings the tricky balance of not overreacting to poor performances in round 1 while also not completely dismissing what we saw with our own eyes.
Essendon were awful, really awful in fact, but are they more likely to repeat that sort of effort in round 2 or get back to something like the performance levels they are capable of?
Brisbane beat last season’s Premiers while North were pitiful against Freo. They meet in round 2. North would have been around a goal favourites before last week but do they even start as favs now?
All interesting questions and the key is finding the right balance of avoiding recency bias while understanding that we should not totally ignore the results in round 1.
We have bets in five games.
Richmond lost key defender Alex Rance for the 2019 season against Carlton and there is no doubt the Tigers will miss the best defender in the league. They will also be without Bachar Houli for their clash with Collingwood which leaves them short of both class and experience at the back.
I was very keen to be with the Tigers at $1.8+ to win this match as i had them priced at $1.66 before the Rance injury and while I still want to back them I want closer to even money now. The best price out there as I write this is $1.9 and $1.98 Betfair ($1.96 with 2.5% comm). I think we’ll get evens and i’ll be looking to get matched on Betfair at that price, or with the books if it looks like getting there.
1 unit Richmond to win at $1.95+
Sydney vs Adelaide looks too hard so we’ll leave that one well alone.
Essendon are not as bad as they looked in round 1 and GWS may turn out to be better than most thought but I still want to oppose the Bombers against St Kilda at Marvel (FFS) Stadium. I think the Docklands venue is more of an advantage to St Kilda and even though they only beat the Suns I think the fact they won by 1 point rather than lost by 1 point in round 1 could provide a significant psychological boost for the Saints.
1 unit St Kilda to win at $3.75 on Betfair
1 unit St Kilda +22.5 at several books including Sportsbet and Beteasy
Port Adelaide were as good as Melbourne were bad in their 1st round match and they should take care of Carlton at Adelaide Oval without too many issues and I can see them racking up a big score. I’m tempted by Port 60+ at $4.33 with Sportsbet and wouldn’t put anyone off backing that as our line is 44 points but we’ll just up our bet a little on the -30.5 line.
2 units Port Adelaide -30.5 at $1.9 with TAB/Sportsbet
Geelong v Melbourne looks like one to watch rather than invest in and our line of -9.5 is bang on the market line.
As already noted on this page, GWS may have been underrated pre season and its totally possible that West Coast will suffer a Bulldogs style Premiers hangover in 2019.
GWS look a great bet at current odds.
1.5 units GWS at $2.84 with Sportsbetting ($2.85 with Topbetta (if you can get set there))
2 units GWS +13.5 at $1.9 with Sportsbet
North vs Brisbane looks too tricky to assess.
Hawthorn won well for us last week and our prediction that Alastair Clarkson would have his game plan for the new rules ready to go came to fruition nicely.
Western Bulldogs may be a touch overrated on their round 1 win over the Swans and we are siding with the Hawks again.
1 unit Hawthorn -16.5 at $1.9 with Sportsbet
Gold Coast were not too bad against the Saints and Freo may have been overrated on their win against North. Freo will win more games in 2019 but i’d rather be with them at home than on their travels.
1 unit Gold Coast to win at $4.35 with Topbetta
1 unit Gold Coast +26.5 at $1.91 with Pointsbet