Round two got off to a great start last night with our unders bet on the Tigers vs the Pies cashing after never really looking in any doubt.
Some absolute corker matches coming up too with the best pair being the next two games starting with the Grand Final re-match tonight at Etihad.
The Doggies have been all the rage at the line this morning, going from 15.5 point favourites to 22.5. Unless there are key players out for the Swans then this looks like a gross overreaction to the Swans loss to Port Adelaide in round 1, a match in which they won the inside 50’s count despite taking a beating.
We’ve often spoken about ‘recency bias’ and this is a prime example in my book. Remember that with under 10 minutes to go in the Grand Final there was only a couple of points between the Swans and the Dogs, and that the Swans were 11.5 point favourites for that match. Even taking the home field advantage of Etihad into account that’s a huge supposed turnaround in each team’s respective chances of winning the match.
Dale Morris would have probably been the man for the Dogs to mark Buddy Franklin and his commission could hurt the Dogs.
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The next match in a rare daytime fixture for the Hawks is Hawthorn vs Adelaide at the MCG.
The margin of victory for the Crows over the Giants last week was a surprise but the fact they won should not have been a shock to anyone as they were the best team in the competition last year until they flopped in the last week of the regular season against the Eagles when they blew their top 4 chances.
So, the Crows appear to have maintained their good form from last year but what about the Hawks after they shipped out Mitchell and Lewis in the off season?
After talking about recency bias i’m not going to write off the Hawks after one match of the 2017 season…BUT looking a bit further back to the end of 2016 they’ve now lost their last three matches and five of their last 7 with one of those wins a single point one over the Pies.
Last year the Hawks averaged 95.9 points for and 83 against, compare this to 2015 and 109.7 and 70.5 and 2014 with 111.8 and 79.3 and we have the look of a team in regression, and why shouldn’t we after so long leading the field?
Taylor Walker returns for the Crows which won’t hurt their chances and i can’t see any result other than an Adelaide victory here. I’ve been proved wrong by the Hawks enough times since i’ve been following the sport but I can’t let that stop me.
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