by @thetrendbettor

Carlton $2.5 v Collingwood $1.55 – MCG

Friday Night, Line +11.5, Total 173.5

Key Trends:

• Carlton are 0-16 SU, 4-12 ATS in night matches at the MCG since 2013

• Collingwood are 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS against Carlton since 2013

• 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two sides have been decided by 6 goals or under

• Carlton are 8-26-1, 24-11 ATS at the MCG since 2014

Recommended Bet: 2u Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.25 (UBET)

Port Adelaide $1.06 v Brisbane Lions $10.50

Saturday Afternoon, Line -49.5, Total 187.5

Key Trends:

• Under is 10-1 in the last 11 Port Adelaide matches at Adelaide Oval

• Port are 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS in their last 12 home games against interstate sides

• Lions are 1-14 SU, 6-9 ATS in their last 15 interstate matches outside of Victoria

• Port are 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS at home when favourites by 40 points or more since 2015

  • Opposing teams score an average of 50.9 in such games

• Port are 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS against the Lions since 2013

Recommended Bet: 0.5u Brisbane Lions Under 68.5 Team Total Points @ $1.89 (Bet365)

Melbourne $1.33 v North Melbourne $3.50 – MCG

Saturday Afternoon, Line -21.5, Total 183.5

Key Trends:

• Melbourne have lost the last 17 games against North Melbourne, dating back to 2006

• North are 9-2 ATS against Melbourne since 2010

• North are 6-2 SU & ATS in their last 8 matches at the MCG

  • Over is 7-1

• Melbourne are 6-7 SU, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 matches at the MCG

Recommended Bet: 2u North Melbourne +21.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

Gold Coast Suns $2.80 v Fremantle $1.47 – Optus Oval

Saturday Afternoon, Line +14.5, Total 179.5

Key Trends:

• Fremantle are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home matches as favourites

• Gold Coast are 4-29 SU, 12-21 ATS in their last 33 interstate matches

• Fremantle are 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS in their last 4 matches against Gold Coast

Recommended Bet: 2u Fremantle -14.5 @ $1.93 (Bet365)

St Kilda $3.35 v Adelaide $3.35 – Etihad Stadium

Saturday Night, Line +20.5, Total 190.5

Key Trends:

• Teams that lose by 50 or more as favourites are 8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS the week after since 2016 (St Kilda)

• St Kilda are 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS in their last 9 games against interstates sides at Etihad Stadium. St Kilda average 103.9 points in such matches

• Adelaide are 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 matches at Etihad Stadium. Adelaide average 117.3 points in such games.

• Adelaide are 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 matches against St Kilda

  • 1-0 SU & ATS at Etihad Stadium

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Both Teams to Score 81+ @ $1.95 (Bet365)

Sydney $1.65 v GWS Giants $2.30 – SCG

Saturday Night, Line -7.5, Total 173.5

Key Trends:

• GWS are 3-1 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches against Sydney

• GWS are 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS at the SCG

• Sydney average 69.3 team points against GWS in their last 4 meetings

• In games at the SCG where Sydney aren’t favourites by 15+ points, Sydney have only scored over 90 points once (from 6 games)

Recommended Bet: 1u – Sydney Under 89.5 Team Total Points @ $1.89 (Bet365)

Richmond $1.60 v Hawthorn $2.40

Sunday Afternoon, Line -9.5, Total 184.5

Key Trends:

• Richmond are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 matches against Hawthorn

• Under is 5-1 in the last 6 matches between these two teams, exceeding 173 points just once

• Richmond are 12-2 SU, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games at the MCG

• Under is 15-4 in Richmond’s last 19 games at the MCG

• Hawthorn are 5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS in their last 13 games at the MCG

  • Under is 9-4

Recommended Bet: 1.5u Under 184.5 Total Points – $1.90 (Bet365)

Western Bulldogs $3 v Essendon $1.42 – Etihad Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +17.5, Total 189.5

Key Trends:

• Western Bulldogs are 2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at Etihad Stadium

• Essendon are 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS in their last 9 games at Etihad Stadium

• Essendon are 6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favourites

• Western Bulldogs are 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs

• Western Bulldogs are 2-2 SU & ATS in their last 4 games against Essendon

Recommended Bet: 1u Essendon 1-39 @ $2.25 (Sportsbet)

West Coast Eagles v Geelong – Optus Stadium

Sunday Afternoon, Line +3.5, Total 188.5

Key Trends:

• Eagles are 2-3 SU & ATS as underdogs at home against interstate sides under Adam Simpson

• Geelong are 11-7 SU, 8-10 ATS in interstate matches as favourites since 2013

• Geelong were 2-3-1 SU, 3-3 ATS in interstate matches in the H&A season in 2017

• Geelong are 2-2 SU & ATS in the last 4 meetings against West Coast

  • Home team is 4-0 SU & ATS

• Geelong are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Western Australia

• All five of West Coast’s home matches against Victorian sides were decided by less than 20 points in 2017.

Recommended Bet:

1u Either Team By Under 19.5 Points @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)