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AFL: Round 3
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by @betdetective

 

 

We went 4/9 for +0.34 units in round 2 thanks to the Suns getting up over Freo in the last game of the round.

 

2019 running totals: bets 15, stakes 18, P&L: +3.64 units

 

As noted above, the Suns saved us in round 2 along with St Kilda who did the business over Essendon. All our profits in 2019 so far have come from backing underdogs, which is exactly how OddyOddyOddy has made profits across multiple sports for over five years. 

 

It made me wonder if we even make any money when backing favourites on the handicap line. I crunched the numbers (overall betdetective’s AFL numbers 502 bets for +48 units +9% ROI) and found that we’ve put up minus lines 103 times for 40 wins and 63 losses and an horrendous -29.77 units at -29% ROI – note: some losses were 2 unit bets which makes it look slightly worse than in reality. 

 

So how have we done putting up plus lines on underdogs? 60 bets +4.25 units at +7.2%.

 

Small samples sure but enough to make me very wary of betting favs at the line. I’m not saying AFL punters can’t make money backing favs at the line, no doubt they can and do but I believe punting is about finding what you’re good at and concentrating on that.

 

When I was a racing punter in the UK virtually all my profits came from backing horses at 10/1+ and the most profitable price bracket over many years was 16/1 to 28/1. 

In conclusion I don’t think we’ll do any harm by sticking mainly to underdogs in head to heads and plus handicaps with some big odds pick your own line bets on favourites. 

 

 

On to round 3.

The Cats go to Adelaide to take on the Crows coming off a huge 80 point win over the Dees in week 2. I must give a shout out to Charlie Constable who racked up 31 disposals and a goal in only his second ever AFL start. Impressive stuff after 21 touches and a goal against the Pies in round 1.

The Cats are looking like the team to beat in 2019 at this early stage. I had them in 7th position in my pre season ladder which also had Richmond top, Melbourne 2nd and Essendon 4th. Hmm.

Our odds on a Cats win sit at $1.77 so we’ll take a unit at $2.10 with Ladbrokes

 

 

The two flops of 2019 Melbourne and Essendon go head to head on Friday night at the MCG and surprise surprise, we are going with the underdog, the Bombers. Our odds of $2.50 for an Essendon win make the $3.05 with Sportsbetting appear good value. We’d be more like 10 points as the handicap so we’ll bet there too. 

1 unit Essendon at $3.05 at Sportsbetting 

1 unit Essendon +16.5 at $1.9 (freely available)

 

 

I’m going to leave Carlton vs Sydney alone but would be with Carlton at the plus or head to head if anything. If the line gets to +16.5 or $2.9 h2h i’ll back Carlton.

 

GWS vs Richmond and Collingwood vs West Coast are in the too hard basket. 

 

 

Brisbane have been mightily impressive so far in beating West Coast and North Melbourne and as a Queensland dweller it’s good to see. I’ve been in Australia for eight years and they have been terrible for that whole period. 

However, i make their game against Port Adelaide just about a coin toss so am going to take a unit of +8.5 at $1.9 which is freely available. 

 

Two of the big surprises of 2019 so far have been the Bulldogs and the Suns. How the Bulldogs came from 6 goals down to chin our Hawthorn -16.5 bets last week i’ll never know while the Suns got up for us in Perth at juicy 3/1+ odds.

 

The Suns getting up last week will have done them a lot of good mentally after losing by a point the week before and our line of 20 points says the 32.5 generally available is a solid bet.

1 unit Gold Coast to win at $5.50 with Palmerbet

1 unit Gold Coast +32.5 at $1.9

 

Our numbers say the Hawks are a bet at -13.5 but with the numbers crunched above we’re going to leave this one and instead go for 0.5 units on the 40+ option (over 39.5) tri bet with Topsport at $3.8.

 

The last match up is Fremantle vs St Kilda and I make St Kilda the bet of the week. Our line is Freo -8 and we can get +18.5 on the Saints. 

1.5 units St Kilda at $3.10 with TAB

1.5 units St Kilda +18.5 at $1.9 with Sportsbet

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