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AFL: Round 5
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Week 4: 12 bets, 9 winners for +10.15 units 

2019: 34 bets, 23 winners for +23.59 units at 69.4% ROI

 

Well what a week that was for Oddy with the only losers we backed being Suns 40+, fair enough, we saved 0.5 units by staying off the -5.5. Freo s/u at $7, again no problem as the plus was never in doubt and similar can be said about the $5 s/u on Western Bulldogs which was our other loser. I was at this game and the $5 looked good until the last few minutes. The Dogs hit $1.67 on Betfair and possibly lower.

 

To be running at 69% ROI so far is great and it’s important to enjoy the good runs while also not getting ahead of ourselves and overstaking. If you’re doing it properly you should not stake more than 3% of your bank on a line bet or 1% on a straight up. 

 

No doubt we are on the positive side of variance at the moment but it’s also encouraging that we are – so far – consistently beating the closing line. 

 

 

I record the closing Bet365 odds and lines (they are the most accessible as they are on oddsportal.com) and so far we have beaten the closing odds or lines on 24 of our 32 bets (leaving out the two 40+ bets as i don’t have closing lines for those) with 4 lines staying the same and only 4 of the 32 bets closing at longer odds than we backed them at. 

 

 

Round 5:

Brisbane are going to be very tough to beat at the Gabba this year and will probably be a decent bet when underdogs and they should run Collingwood very close. Our line is 5 and we can get +10.5 with bet365 at $1.91 or $1.85 with TAB. A unit on that and another straight up at $2.45 with TAB or 365.

 

North vs Essendon we are leaving alone as our line is 14 and we are leaving the minus bets alone for now. Should money come for North in the week we may go for Bombers 40+ so watch our twitter feed for updates.

 

Port Adelaide were the bet of the weekend for me at $5.20 with Sportsbet but that’s been snapped up. There is still value around though and the $4.75 with Topbetta or the $4.7 with Sportsbetting is worth a bet. One unit. The line has not moved despite the head to head odds shift and we’ll have 2 units on Port +28.5 at $1.9 with Sportsbet or the +29.5 if you can get set with bet365.  

 

GWS should thrash Freo and 40+ at $2.25 with Topbetta or $2.15 with TAB is worth a unit. I would not put anyone off the 60+ too but won’t be recommending it here. 

 

I’m leaning towards St Kilda at the plus against Melbourne but am going to keep our powder dry and see if money comes for the Demons later in the week. Again, watch our twitter feed for updates. 

 

We have no bets in the next three games.

 

Hawthorn vs Geelong should be a good match to close out the round and there is enough juice in the Hawthorn price to get involved. Our line is 9 so the +15.5 with Sportsbet is a bet for one unit, as is the $3.1 straight up with Palmerbet or on Betfair.

 

 

 

 

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