We’ve put up our totals bets on another thread but here they are again:
Port vs Carlton: under 178.5 at $1.91 with
Bulldogs vs Lions: under 187.5 at $1.91 with
Freo vs North: under 183.5 at $1.88 with
Hawks vs WCE: under 188.5 at $1.88 with
I’m also keeping a close weather watch on the Anzacs Day game at the MCG with rain forecast. The line has already dropped from 178.5 to 170.5 but missing the opening line should not put you off if the rain materialises with 64% of games noted as ‘wet’ in our database http://oddyoddyoddy.com.au/category/afl/afl-database/ going under on the Pinnacle CLOSING line. If anyone can get on with Betstars or Hills in the UK get as much as you can on the unders at 183.5 and 179.5.
I’m not betting any straight ups or handicap lines yet, as you might have guessed, but here are my thoughts about round 5 anyway.
Port are much better than i thought they’d be with Hinkley’s team looking more and more like the 2014 version that had many people predicting a flag for this group of players. They are 46 point favs over the Blues and have gone 10/9 ATS when 20+ point favs since 2014. They’ll win but i couldn’t recommend a bet at that line, especially when i’m on the unders.
The Western Bulldogs are 47 point favs vs the Lions at Etihad and the 3rd biggest start they’ve had to give up since 2014. I lean towards Brisbane and would not try to put anyone off a line bet at the plus with the Premiers looking a touch out of sorts so far in 2017.
Gold Coast vs Adelaide could be a good one at Metricon on Saturday afternoon with the Crows looking like the best team in the land (again) and the Suns showing a bit of potential. Yes, they got smashed by GWS in round 2 but apart from that they’ve been pretty good for the most part. Adelaide when 15+ point favs away from Adelaide Oval are 9/4 ATS so don’t be put off if you like them. Gold Coast are 4/6 ATS as 15+ port Dogs at home since 2015.
The Swans are 11.5 point dogs to GWS at SCG (opened 14.5) and 8.5 point favourites is the most unfenced they’ve been by the bookies since 2014. Are the Swans that bad? Are GWS that much better? The Swans have players back and have had a tough start to the season. If GWS cover the spread here then we may well be seeing a proper changing of the guard, but i couldn’t back them to do it at the SCG where the Swans are 23/6/1 S/U since 2014.
Freo have finally got their shit together and it didn’t take a piece of tactical genius from Ross Lyon but a somewhat desperate throw of the dice in chucking a load of kids in for it to happen. They play the Kangaroos who must be sick of losing games and mores, losing close games. I think they’ll lose another close one here.
St Kilda look very skinny at +12.5 to beat the Cats at Etihad as the Cats look very strong while the Saints can look great but often look terrible. Even with a 3 goal home advantage I still like the Cats. We’ll see.
Hawthorn vs West Coast is another match, like the above St Kilda one, where home advantage is key in where the books have set their line. Hawthorn really do look awful but the Eagles aren’t to be trusted too implicitly away from Perth and i’m hoping this becomes a midfield battle of attrition with Clarkson hopefully content with not taking too much of a pasting after rounds 3 and 4. All aboard the unders with West Coast usually a great unders bet on their travels.
Richmond vs Melbourne could be the game of the round on Monday and the line of -4.5 suggests it will be a close one. I lean towards the Tigers at the minus as they are playing with a lot of confidence but it should be close.
Essendon and Collingwood round out the long weekend on Anzacs Day and as mentioned about this is weather watch game. Rain = unders. Simples.