Round 5: 7 bets, 8 units staked for +0.55 units
2019: 41 bets, 45 units staked for +24.14 units
A small profit in round 5 with Port Adelaide easily taking care of West Coast at 7/2+.
I was camping (in the pissing rain) over Easter so did not get a chance to keep tabs on our ‘maybe’ bets. Essendon 40+ and St Kilda s/u and plus which typically both saluted in some style. We backed GWS by 40+ and that bet has annoyed me ever since and should never have been recommended. We are avoiding favourites at the line and 40+ with a line of 34.5 was too similar. Half a unit at 60+ or no bet should have been the call.
All seven of our bets firmed in the betting so our trend of beating the closing lines continued.
Round 6 looks tricky and a few games need more analysis before taking the plunge so we’ll post again on Friday with updated bets. Dogs and the plus is a possible and i’m also mulling over an either by 15 points or less in St Kilda vs Adelaide as our line for that match is zero. Cats 40+ is another possible.
Richmond vs Melbourne kicks off the round tonight and the 2017 Premiers welcome back Jack Riewoldt to a team that has bounced back to form in the last couple of weeks. We may fall off a cliff with the Demons but our numbers make this a bit closer (Tiges by 8) than the current line of 14.5 so we have to back them despite their 1-4 start to 2019.
1 unit Melbourne to win at $2.75 and +14.5 with Beteasy
Essendon and Collingwood do battle on ANZACS day and it should be a good game, and a close one. Both teams are in good form with the Bombers winning their last 3 and Pies 2 of their last 3. Joe Daniher returning last week was a big boost and he may prove to be the difference between the sides if he can kick straight.
We have the Pies winning by 4 points so Essendon at +11.5 with Beteasy for a unit and at $2.6 with TAB for the same.