Our bets on Melbourne on Wednesday night were never in the hunt and they played like a team sat at 1-4. Panicked, with a lack of composure throughout the side. They really miss Jesse Hogan as they have no focal point in the forward line at all. They will improve defensively when Steven May and Jake Lever return but they might be done and dusted finals wise by then.
As an Essendon fan I can only say that the picture below speaks 1000 words re the ANZAC Day game yesterday. Brutal. I don’t like umpire bashing so i’m not going to start now but the faces in the picture say it all after another freekick went against the Dons.
We have quite a few more bets in the remaining games.
North travel to Adelaide to take on Port and with North coming off a thumping from the Bombers and Port a convincing win in Perth over the reigning Premiers it may surprise those not familiar with our methods that we are backing North.
North beat the Crows as recently as round 4 and led at half time and trailed by a single point at 3/4 time vs Hawthorn in round 3.
Saying that, it looked like a no bet game until the line shifted Port’s way by a couple of points yesterday from 24.5 to 26.5.
1/2 a unit North to win at $4.50 Betfair and 1 unit North +26.5 at $1.91 generally available.
I’ve also come around to siding with the Suns in the ‘Q Clash’ at the Gabba. The Suns won at the Gabba last year in round 5 and two of the last 3 meetings between the sides have been decided by 4 or fewer points.
1 unit Suns at $3.0 Betfair (or Topbetta) and 1.5 units Suns +16.5 at $1.9 with Topsport
Our line for St Kilda vs Adelaide is 0 so it’s a marginal one but with the line now at 2.5 we are going with a unit +2.5 on the Crows at $1.90 with Topsport or Sportsbet. The Crows have a decent enough record at Marvel Stadium winning 19 and losing 11 since 2009 and going 6/6 since 2015.
Five of their 6 wins since 2015 have been when between 2.5 and 14 point underdogs.
I looked at the either by 15 points or less in the tribet market but the numbers suggest anything less than $3.25 is no good and we can’t get anywhere near that.
No bet Swans vs GWS
There has been a move for Freo to beat the Dogs and the line is now 18.5 from 14.5 and that’s enough for us to get involved.
1 unit Bulldogs to win at $3.25 Betfair and 1.5 units +18.5 with Topsport or Sportsbet
The last two games we are backing the favs to win by 40+ for 1 unit. Hopefully we’ll get at least one of them up.
Hawks 40+ at $3.6 with Bet365 (don’t take less than the $3.4 available with Sportsbet)
Cats 40+ at $3.9 with 365 or Beteasy