Round 6: 13 bets, 13.5 units staked: -3.39 units
2019: 54 bets, 58.5 units staked: +20.75 units (35.47% ROI)
Our first losing week which would have been very marginal had the Bulldogs scored one more point which would have seen them cover. The last three scores of the match were Bulldog points. Grrr.
The markets appear to have tightened up a fair bit over the last few weeks and this week is no different with quite a few lines looking pretty much bang on according to our numbers, but we’ve still got a decent amount of bets.
First up – and the bet of the week – is on Port to beat Collingwood. I still have the Pies as one of best few teams but I can’t have them as close to three goals better than Port at Marvel. Our line is 12 points and we can get +22.5 with Sportsbet and we’re having two units at $1.90 and a unit at $3.55 straight up with Unibet.
There’s no bet in GWS vs Saints. It’s hard to gauge just how good both of these teams are but i’m looking forward to watching this to see how the Saints go.
Our line in Melbourne vs Hawthorn is Hawks -4. We can get $1.95 head to head and while in tempted i’m more inclined to see how the market moves over the next few days. If money comes for Melbourne (I don’t think it will) i’ll probably back Hawthorn at odds against.
No bet in Brisbane vs Sydney.
There is a bit of juice in the Bulldogs line with our line set at 17. They are no better than a mid ladder side but i’m not convinced the Tigers are a whole lot better. They beat a hapless Demons last week and the Swans the week before which may not say too much about how good they are. Their win at Port in R4 was very good however and if they repeat that form we will lose our bets. Here’s hoping they don’t.
1 unit Western Bulldogs at $3.85 with Bet365 ($3.50+ is OK) and 1.5 units +23.5 at $1.9 with Unibet
The Suns will probably get smashed in Perth when they take on West Coast but that’s not going to stop us backing them. Our line is 36 so we have to be happy taking +47.5 with Sportsbet for 1.5 units and also chucking half a unit on the Suns doing the unthinkable and winning at $10 on Betfair.
Carlton fans must be torn between depression over their bare results and optimism over their performances. They sit at 1-5 but it could easily be 3-3 or even 4-3. All this said I still think there’s a touch of value in backing North but i’m holding off on pulling the trigger for now in hope that money comes for the Blues.
We have no bets in the final two games of the round but keep an eye on our twitter feed in case there are significant odds shifts. If Essendon get to 3 goals underdogs we’ll be backing them.